Posts by Rod David
Morning bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2113.75 | 2112.00 |
| …would target | 2119.75 | 2118.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2106.00 | 2104.25 |
| …would target | 2100.50 | 2098.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Tuesday”s session failed to exploit
Tuesday”s session failed to exploit the morning”s trapped shorts. So, the natural question is whether Tuesday morning”s sellers are weak-handed. They allowed impatient buyers to have their way, avoiding an intraday test of last week”s 2096 low, which prevented a more reliable low from forming.
That impatience will be an issue if Tuesday afternoon”s 10-point slide to 2106.50 were to extend down any deeper. An overnight dip could be recovered again before the open, but that would be asking a lot of buyers at this stage.
Having trended down into Tuesday”s close, gapping up above the afternoon bias environment”s 2116 high would form a session-long rally setup. Regardless of the overnight action, just opening above 2112 could marginalize sellers. Otherwise, renewed selling pressure could extend down sharply, perhaps even overnight.
More detail is covered in the post-market Wrap, recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bwzyhmm
Tonight”s chaRTroom links are here:
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Pre-close view… Rally misses its window.
Not for lack of trying, but positive territory has evaporated.
The noon hour”s 6-point surge to 2114.00 extended through the afternoon”s bias-up target by 1 point to 2116.00. Its reaction down exited the bias environment holding a test of 2112.00 as support.
But the dip from 2116.00 has since extended down to 2107.25. That”s the origin of the noon hour”s 6-point surge.
After trapping this morning”s shorts, a very productive afternoon rally should be squeezing them further. But it”s not. Another rally leg can be signaled back above 2110.00, but that must be sooner rather than later to squeeze shorts that initiated under 2112.00 after 2:30.
Otherwise, rallying overnight or tomorrow would be unlikely if this afternoon”s pullback were to extend under 2106.50. Closing back above 2112.00 would be a big step toward producing a delayed reaction to this morning”s recovery.
Daily Spot… Euro and Bonds compensate for their delays.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday”s had dip held a 61.8% retracement of the rally from last week”s low. Tuesday”s open surged through the likely 1.1095 target on the way to almost 1.1200. Extending the rally depends upon pullbacks holding 1.1110 as support. The next higher target would be 1.2975 1.1295. Otherwise, a much deeper decline is underway.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday”s stunning intraday retracement of the morning”s surge had not extended under Friday”s close by noon. Instead, flat-to-higher ranging remained within Monday”s range, now falling behind schedule in launching a new downleg.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Completely retracing Monday”s opening surge had created a time frame for extending down, if the pattern remained likely to extend down.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday”s steep, deep 2-point drop from 155-5 extended down Tuesday as steeply and as deeply to test 151-14..A bounce should hold 152-24 before resuming the decline.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday”s probing above 60.80 made any dip unlikely to close under 60.30. The probe extended higher to attack 61.80. Now holding above 51.75 59.75 keeps the 63.00 target in-play.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday”s fresh lows down to 2.60 fulfilled the bottoming setup I had described after Monday”s close. Probing Sunday night”s low and recovering back into Friday”s range above 2.63 –optimally also probing above Monday”s 2.67 high — should marginalize sellers. Closing under 2.60 would be that much more bearish.
Glass half-full.
Noon hour surge has an opportunity… and a risk.
The bias-down environment”s probes above its 2106.50 bias-down signal never extended higher than their first 3 minutes. Their reactions down held the 2104.25 sell signal that would have resumed the decline. The bias environment lapsed at or under 2106.50, leaving no unfinished business below.
Firming into the noon hour then surged to 2114.00. Any fresh high would target 2115.00, which happens to be this afternoon”s bias-up target, i.e. resistance. Its test would be vulnerable to reversing down sharply. But exceeding it through 1:20 would renew the bias-up signal.
Renewing the bias-up signal would be entirely appropriate. Absorbing this morning”s sellers was likely to launch an obvious rally leg. The noon hour”s singular probe into positive territory hardly suffices. Not triggering this afternoon”s 2110.00 bias-up signal at 1:20 could be the last opportunity for avoiding new highs.