Posts by Rod David
Afternoon bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2119.75 | 2118.00 |
| …would target | 2126.50 | 2124.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2110.00 | 2108.25 |
| …would target | 2104.00 | 2102.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Livestox is today due to
Livestox is today due to travel. Join us at the following link at 12:15 to review the market, Gold, Crude Oil and individual stocks. Your stock chart analysis requests will be reviewed, too.
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/pcxsrhm
optional teleconference instructions (required for iPad and tablets):
1-605-562-0020
Meeting ID 976-912-682 #
And here are recent posts in the Activity Feed to be included in the Marketfy search engine:
KiteGradient — SYT – Are you able run parameters on the latest move? Is it getting exhausted in anticipation of another takeover offer?
Posted Yesterday —
Rod-David — SYT – Since gapping up last month to ~84, the past several weeks have contained several intraday spikes up that eked out higher and higher highs. Each time that happens, recalculate the 61.8% difference between 84 and the latest high, which is the pullback limit that keeps alive the upside momentum
Posted Yesterday —
fennecby — so SPCB got within 8 cents of your suggested “buy the pullback,” then took off.
what do you do in such cases?
Posted 23 hours ago —
Rod-David — SPCB — I don”t like to chase. I would consider the pullback limit fulfilled and decide whether to be long, with a stop under 11.80
Posted 18 hours ago —
fennecby — got it, thanks. i hate chasing too.
Posted 18 hours ago —
KiteGradient — Thanks Rod
Posted 15 hours ago —
fennecby — is this looking double-toppish in GWPH?
Posted 14 hours ago —
Rod-David — GWPH — Double Top with April”s high? Possibly. Their interim upsloping consolidation that expended a lot of optimism my find that optimism sorely lacking just when it is needed most, in trying to sustain a fresh high at 136.
Posted an hour ago —
fennecby — thanks.
Posted just now
Post-open review… Comping for the delay(s)
Pre-open tumble and post-open plunge all recovered.
The pre-open rally to 2119.75 had retraced to the 2112.00 bias-up signal. Bouncing into the open tested the 2114.75 preliminary level, whose recovery through 9:45 would have made the bias-up signal likely to trigger at 10:15.
By the same token, holding the test of 2114.75 would make bias-up unlikely to trigger.
Headlines about Ukraine rebels made 2114.75”s test react down. Hard. The first 5 minutes plunged 8 points to 2107.25. Suffering the consequences so quickly made 2114.75”s test irrelevant. Bias-up still could trigger.
Bias-up did trigger, already testing the 2118.00 bias-up target. It wasn”t exceeded in time to renew the bias-up signal, but reaching it so late didn”t prevent its momentum from extending higher to 2120.75.
Absorbing yesterday morning”s sell-off should have produced this rally yesterday afternoon. Gapping up above yesterday afternoon”s 2116.00 high should have resumed it with a vengeance.
Exiting the bias environment above 2121.25 is the next possible confirmation that a rally targeting new highs is underway. Back under 2112.00 would have have little excuse for not extending down aggressively.
Choppy consolidation resisted by 2112
Choppy consolidation resisted by 2112 broke higher and eventually surged to attack 2120. Gapping up above yesterday”s 2116 high would compensate for not maintaining the afternoon rally. It still could, but it”s more difficult now since retracing it all back down to 2112. We”ll still expect bigger things above if the opening 15 minutes recovers 2114.75 (now being attacked to within 2 ticks). It must be recovered almost immediately to enable gapping up above 2116. Otherwise, there isn”t anything bullish about another failed rally effort.
Here”s the pre-market Tour recording for details:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/ypyjthv
The First Trade… All quiet, on all the fronts.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Tuesday morning”s recovery from fresh lows attacking 2096.00 was reversed well into positive territory. But dropping 10 points from 2116.00 had retraced the noon hour”s 6-point surge back through its inflection, and back into negative territory. The trend, itself, had not reversed down, but the attempt to squeeze the morning”s shorts seemed a failure. Was it undone by only having attacked last week”s 2096.00 low, rallying impatiently before a more thorough testing could have formed a more durable bottom?
Overnight action”s new info…
Yesterday;s 10-point drop into the close, and into negative territory, hasn”t extended any deeper. Narrow ranging has gotten volatile, but hasn”t become trending. Surging to 2112.00 into Europe”s opens has ranged widely, down to 2107.50 and back up again.
If, then…
Retracing yesterday”s 6-point noon hour surge was not insignificant. That surge had attracted new sponsorship, extending up another 2 points before peaking. Its reaction down did stop short of retracing back to the 2104.25
last relative low that had preceded the surge. So, duplicating yesterday afternoon”s rally would be credible for extending it much higher this time. The most credible rally attempt would gap up. But attempts to rally from under 2104.25 would more likely be only temporary corrective bounces on the way back down through yesterday”s lows.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2114.75 would be likely also to trigger the 2112.00 bias-up signal 30 minutes later at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2108.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 2102.25 would be likely to trigger the 2104.25 bias-down signal.