Posts by Rod David
Morning bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2120.50 | 2118.75 |
| …would target | 2126.00 | 2124.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2109.75 | 2108.00 |
| …would target | 2104.00 | 2102.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS INVALIDATED, TESTED BOTH BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Wednesday failed to extend two
Wednesday failed to extend two more surges, one of them pre-open, both probing above 2118 resistance. Neither was reversed back into negative territory. In fact, Wednesday”s session was borderline “ineffectual optimism,” gapping up and spending the entire session in positive territory without extending higher.
A door remains open to launching an upleg. It”s the front door, as in Thursday”s open. Trending Thursday afternoon will be difficult if not already underway by then, as Friday morning”s impending Employment Situation report tends to paralyze price action with anxious. The drop since Memorial Day has formed a Descending Triangle, and greeting the report from within the pattern wouldn”t be a position of strength.
NOTE: I”ll be unavailable Thursday after the noon hour. First, we”ll do a “Market Wrap” of sorts at 1:03 ET, and then identify the afternoon”s bias. The chaRTroom will remain on-line.
Here”s Wednesday”s post-market Wrap recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/zvshzkj
And here are the overnight chaRTroom links:
XP-Friendly: http://anymeeting.com/460-932-788
non-XP ilinc: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh
Livestox, Jun 3 2015
INVESTMENT POLICY COMMITTEE UPDATE
I am working with third-parties to adapt their virtual portfolios for our use, so that our limit and stop orders can be entered in a real-world manner, and so that subscribers will get “trade alert” emails for any change or fill. I”m very excited about this feature, and about the group aspect. Stay tuned…
LIVESTOX
Wednesday”s Livestox discussed the market”s ranging, and why at least one more higher high remains possible. We discussed Crude Oil and Precious Metals, too.
USO — My pullback target was attacked before an impressive rally returned to the original sell signal as resistance. Regardless, industry stocks are probably positioned for lower prices, so I wouldn”t let that be the reason not to buy operating companies.
GLD – Under 113.50 and 113.10 would target 110.25
– above 115.65 would target 117 and higher
SLV – Earlier weakness projecting follow-through
INSY — Forming a head & shoulders that would trigger under 58.40
TRTC – Volume doesn”t confirm this bounce, which could still test .16
VAPE — Above .45 and .55 would target .71-.73
GWPH — Bearish pattern forming that still has one more higher high, probably at 130-132 before reversing down
BLPG – Example of trusting the stock over the hype
OXIS — Another example of trusting the stock over the hype
TAUG — Recent bounce is impressive, and closing above .007-.008 would target .011 and .015
TURV — Closing above .84 would be vulnerable to extending sharply higher.
CGRW — Ascending Triangle is getting a little tight at the apex
ENDO — Rally is intact
PLPL – The clock is running on this patter resuming its rally
THCZ – Its recent performance made this a sort of gateway drug to the sector”s other stocks, so it”s of broad concern that its pullback is probing fresh lows.
REQUESTS:
AERI, CARA, CERU, PPCH, MYL
Daily Spot… Bond meets target, Gold breaks support
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday afternoon”s dip had held its 1.1095 pullback limit, which Wednesday”s exploited with a second consecutive higher close that confirmed Tuesday”s breakout. Now at least an eventual third higher close is required.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday had not yet broken lower to continue reversing Monday morning”s failed surge, but Wednesday”s gap down and follow-through to 1180.00 compensated for the delay. A second consecutive lower close Thursday would confirm a deeper downleg underway targeting the 1150”s. Closing above 1189.00 would undermine the decline.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday”s open was already gapping down and probing fresh relative lows ahead of the afternoon”s Beige Book release. Lower lows stopped short of probing the 16.15-16.30. target area.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
New lows Wednesday morning fulfilled the longstanding 149-08 target to within 1 tick before firming into and out of the afternoon”s Beige Book release. Closing above 150-16 would indicate the drop was ending, but not necessarily ready to reverse the trend back up.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
After having probed above 60.80, testing 60.30 was likely to hold through Wednesday”s close. It didn”t. Closing under it suggests that much more substantial selling pressure is forming. But gapping up and/or spiking back through 60.80 Thursday would reject Wednesday”s deeper dip, while targeting 63.00. Closing under 58.75 would invalidate the recovery potential.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday”s gap down from having closed Tuesday above a multi-session range has left unfinished business above. And the intraday dip held a 61.8% retracement back into the range. Greeting Thursday”s EIA report already in an uptrend would have been a better position of strength. But immediate strength would be credible for extending higher.
Trying, trying again.
Fresh highs retraced to their move”s origin, again.
This morning”s rally to 2120.75 consolidated back down to the 2118.00 bias-up signal as support. Narrow ranging for an hour waited patiently for the bias environment to begin lapsing. And then the selling began.
We knew it was getting late to resume the rally with Beige Book”s release getting closer. But probing under this morning”s 2112.00 bias-up signal does border on overkill.
Despite dropping 10-11 points to test 2111.00 before the noon hour and 2109.00 during the noon hour, negative territory was never threatened. A lot of selling pressure has been expended to reject the post-open rally, but that hasn”t resumed the decline. If an afternoon rally can”t exploit this setup, then the afternoon could be much lower.