Posts by Rod David
Post-open review… Non-trending trending.
Amazingly wide-ranging open.
The open”s first 2 minutes ranged 4 points between 2102.00-2106.00. That was a dip, and it was recovered as quickly. That is, 2106.00 was being tested again within another 1-2 minutes. Then right back down to 2102.00. Quickly.
Actually, that last dip extended back to the 2099.75 overnight low. The overnight range can still be predictive during the first 15 minutes of volatility. And it was. Its touch launched a 7-point bounce. Its reaction down to 2102.00 surged back up to attack 2112.00.
So, a 4-point opening range, plunging 6 points, rallying 12 points. Even without trending, there”s plenty of opportunity for intraday moves.
Oh, and by the way, both bias-down parameters were rejected. The 2108.00 bias-down signal was touched to within 1 tick during the 3-minute window around 10:15. It was failing at 10:30, invalidating the no-bias, or triggering a late bias-down.
So, 2112.00”s attack has been retraced through the 2099.75 opening low”s retest of the overnight low. It can extend down to 2095.75, and still recover when exiting the bias environment at 11:30. Regardless of a lower low, the bias environment must be exited above its 2102.25 bias-down target to prevent sellers from gaining traction.
Does this session want to
Does this session want to trend, or remain in the range? That”s the big question we discussed during the pre-market Tour, linked below. Trending is difficult ahead of the monthly Employment Situation report, coming tomorrow morning. Being at the range”s lower-end, remaining within the range would likelier bounce this morning.
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/jrtmmrc
Reminder: This afternoon”s Market Wrap will be at 1:03 ET, as I”m away for the day right after that.
The First Trade… You’ll never guess.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
All of Wednesday was spent in positive territory. But the pre-open and post-open probes above 2116.00-2118.00 resistance each were retraced. Firming into the close extended post-close to retest 2116.50.
Overnight action”s new info…
Another overnight drop, who knew… Wednesday”s post-close bounce to 2116.50 began falling gradually, and then more steeply, to eventually test 2110.00. A 4-point bounce met Europe”s opens at 2113.50. The meeting went poorly, triggering a plunge to 2099.75. That 3-hour old low has since ranged sideways back up to 2106.00.
If, then…
The overnight drop proves that Wednesday”s rally attempts weren”t compensating for the delay caused by Tuesday not maintaining its recovery. But the overnight drop hasn”t reversed the trend down. At least, not yet — 2099.75 may be the lowest a dip could qualify as still being recoverable. Any lower would return so close to recent lows as to require probing under them. And that would risk triggering the Ascending Triangle pattern that began forming at Memorial Day, targeting 2078.75-2081.25. The trigger for launching a downleg is nearer than signaling new highs in-play. Counter-intuitively, that can be bullish for today if the market isn”t yet ready to trend. But the overnight drop hasn”t altered the likelihood for rally legs to be steep.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2101.50 would be unlikely to recover the 2102.25 bias-down target by 10:15, and more likely to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2110.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2108.00 bias-down signal at 10:15.
Here are today”s chaRTroom links:
Here are today”s chaRTroom links:
XP-Friendly: http://anymeeting.com/081-972-995
non-XP ilinc: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh
Reminder:
I must leave early today at 1:30pm ET,
but the chaRTroom will continue broadcasting.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jun 4 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Thursday”s econ calendar has three reports that might further inform sentiment ahead of Friday”s payrolls. But none has a reliable track record for influencing price action. The noon hour”s Fed speaker might make a bigger splash during a relatively less liquid environment, but probably not a lasting one.
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
*Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET
Gallup US Payroll to Population
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*Daniel Tarullo Speaks
12:00 PM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET