Posts by Rod David
Saturday Review’s recording (for 5/30/15)… Still clinging.
Last week”s dips had steeper trajectories than its rallies. And its rallies all failed upon probing the same resistance (2118).
Meanwhile, Friday”s intraday dips repeatedly stopped optimistically short of prior lows. At least an obligatory probe lower has become likely. To where, and how will we know that probe lower is being avoided? And what are the bigger picture consequences either way — what takes new highs off the table, and what if new highs are probed before Friday”s Employment Situation report?
This weekend”s Saturday Review discussed those topics, and more. There were great questions, and a review of AAPL and the long-bond charts.
View the meeting here: MP4 recording
Saturday Review begins in an
Saturday Review begins in an hour at 9:30 ET. Use either link below at any time to join us. We”ll review the market”s bigger picture, and also any stock chart analysis requests. See you soon!
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Morning bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2115.00 | 2113.00 |
| …would target | 2119.75 | 2118.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2106.00 | 2104.25 |
| …would target | 2100.50 | 2098.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Not bad range for a
Not bad range for a Friday. For any day. Opening around 2118 and sliding to 2102, then bouncing to 2115 and sliding back to 2103. Just more evidence that this market isn”t settling in for the summer doldrums.
The big question is whether a retest of the highs has been avoided. Yet another opportunity to rally through 2118 was rejected by a drop that can extend back under the weeks” 2096 lows. Oversold RSIs at Friday”s low can help to resume the decline. Could Monday recover 2118 instead?
We discussed that a little in the post-market Wrap, linked here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/zvshwzr
Join us this weekend for the Saturday Review at 9:30am ET. I”ll send its links overnight.
Pre-close view… Fresh lows coming?
Not just for today, but for the week.
The afternoon”s 2115.75 bias-up signal was attacked to within 2 ticks. But not until 1:30, when recovering it would have only invalidated the no-bias. So, it held.
An offsetting test of the 2104.25 bias-down signal wasn”t required, but it”s being tested now. Probed down to 2103.00 as the final hour approaches.
The bias environment was exited under the noon hour”s low. Entering the final hour under the bias environment”s 2105.75 low would have signaled the decline is gaining traction. But it”s being overlapped into the final hour, so trending down under the 2103.00 low through 3:10-3:20 would still be bearish.
This setup normally would be compelling for a hold-short. Today”s traction setup includes a failed probe above the noon hour”s high, making a more substantial rejection of the recovery, and making hold-short more compelling.
Regardless of the ultimate traction signal, being a Friday makes the last half-hour extra vulnerable to trending sharply in either direction, for whatever reason. Example: A 12-point rally from this morning”s low was triggered by a headline, and it was just retraced almost entirely.