Rod David – Page 1834 – If, Then… Market Timing

The drop following Europe”s opens

By Rod David | June 1, 2015 - 9:22 am

The drop following Europe”s opens had bottomed in a Symmetrical Triangle. It was supported by this morning”s 2104.25 bias-down signal, and it had launched a failed surge to attack 2112. But rather than extend down, another surge attacked 2116. Now 2112 is trying to serve as support.

If the pre-open recovery attempt only trapped more longs, then the open shouldn”t delay extending down to 2106.50 and then through it. The upside potential is now 2118-2121. Details were discussed during the pre-market Tour, recorded here:

https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/wzcxtkh

Posted in S&P

Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jun 1 2015

By Rod David | June 1, 2015 - 7:24 am

A look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.

Highlights: The calendar is busy for a Monday. And its reports are both high-profile and influential to price action. The pre-open Fed speaker and post-open ISM number are the most relevant.

Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET

*Eric Rosengren Speaks
9:05 AM ET

PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET

*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET

Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET

3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET

6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET

Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure
1:00 PM ET

Posted in Econ Calendar, S&P

The First Trade… Not for lack of trying.

By Rod David | June 1, 2015 - 7:15 am

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Another attempt to recover 2118.00 at the open failed Friday, more substantially than any prior recovery attempt there. Just returning to 2112.00 had signaled a bigger reversal underway, which quickly extended down to 2102.25. Bouncing to 2115.00 on a Greece headline was largely retraced, albeit stopping optimistically short of actually touching the low.

Overnight action”s new info…
Firming Sunday night extended quietly back up to 2114.00 before being reversed sharply back down to 2104.00. A Symmetrical Triangle formed there, and then an hour ago it launched a 5-point surge to 2110.75 (reacting to a Greece headline, of course). That was retraced almost as quickly, now hovering above 2104.00.

If, then…
The first breakout from a Symmetrical Triangle is often false, and reversed more substantially in the opposite direction. Reversing the hour-old failed 5-point surge can measure another 8 or 16 points. Either would be part of fulfilling the probe under last week”s 2096.00 low by 2-3 points. This reversal must be influential during the opening 15 minutes, or else another bounce to 2114.00-2115.00 would be likelier.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2101.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2104.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2108.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Posted in S&P, The First Trade

The US Senate has let

By Rod David | May 31, 2015 - 5:33 pm

The US Senate has let another bill come down to its deadline, not surprisingly. Greece is in the headlines, also not surprising. Deutsche Bank is criticizing Fed policy, mildly surprising. Will the market react to any of it? Globex opens in 30 minutes, and you can check the chaRTroom overnight at these links:

XP-Friendly: http://anymeeting.com/994-565-527
non-XP ilinc: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh

Posted in S&P

The Universe, week of Jun 1 2015… Et tu, Paulus?

By Rod David | May 30, 2015 - 12:47 pm

Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]

Links to || Last week”s Universe || Prior week”s Universe || Previous week”s Universe ||

May 30 2015 LONDON (AP) — Paul McCartney says he has given up marijuana after many years of indulgence and now prefers wine or “a nice margarita.”

Dare we equate this weekend”s quote above, with the eight-year old quote below?

Nov 5 2007 BRAZIL (DailyMail) — Supermodel Gisele Bundchen has proved she”s got a head for figures – the financial kind. The Brazilian beauty has insisted that she is paid in Euros rather than US dollars.”

At the time, the US Dollar was trading for the lowest conversion rate ever to the Euro since its 1999 launch. We can”t fault Gisele for having had enough of it.

Oh, the Dollar bottomed right after that, too.

The wider that a theme is disseminated, the more market participants have acted on it already. To be sure, Sir Paul isn”t speaking about the Cannabis stock sector. But he is expressing a sentiment that has contributed to the sector”s contraction. When non-expert pop culture icons start making decisions on it, often the theme has been fully discounted.

We can”t assume that Tess McGill was on the other side of Gisele”s trade, any more than we would expect Yoko to start publicly endorsing pot. But the more comfortable that more people feel in taking one side of an argument, the more potential for at least a correction.

Marijuana Stock Universe for June 1 2015
Reference this table during stock reactions
4-week	# up:	12	12.00%
trends*	# flat:	20	20.00%
	# down:	68	68.00%
*The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks.

symbol	support	resistance	4-week trend
ACGX	0.000	0.003	flat
AERO	2.310	4.030	down
AGTK	0.008	0.022	down
AMMJ	0.360	0.570	down
ARNA	3.800	5.030	flat
ATTBF	0.071	0.117	down
AVTC	0.000	0.400	down
AXXU	0.037	0.140	down
BLOZF	0.130	0.340	down
BLPG	0.044	0.102	down
BNRDF	0.530	0.615	down
BRDT	0.032	0.094	down
BTFL	0.071	0.232	down
CANL	0.750	1.250	down
CANN	1.690	4.600	down
CANV	1.340	1.750	down
CARA	8.800	10.300	down
CBDS	1.830	5.630	down
CBGI	0.000	0.005	down
CBIS	0.027	0.038	down
CGRW	0.550	0.750	up
CHUM	n/a	n/a	down
CNAB	0.530	0.750	flat
DEWM	0.002	0.004	flat
DIGPD	0.350	1.000	flat
DSCR	0.000	0.025	down
EAPH	0.008	0.013	down
EDXC	0.019	0.047	down
ENDO	0.016	0.025	up
ENRT	0.017	0.037	down
ERBB	0.003	0.007	down
ETST	n/a	n/a	flat
EXMT	0.000	0.004	flat
FITX	0.005	0.012	down
CAFS	0.025	0.066	up
FSPM	0.000	0.250	down
FULL	3.100	3.640	down
FWDG	0.000	0.002	down
GBLX	0.270	0.460	up
GRCU	0.000	0.004	down
GRNH	0.023	0.067	down
GWPH	99.450	117.350	up
HEMP	0.016	0.025	down
ICBU	0.002	0.011	down
IGRW	0.000	0.002	flat
IMLFF	0.135	0.240	down
INCC	0.001	0.007	flat
INSY	49.950	59.750	flat
ITNS	0.006	0.011	down
LATF	0.000	0.001	down
LXRP	0.144	0.197	up
MCIG	0.055	0.084	down
MDBX	0.140	0.850	down
MDCN	0.005	0.022	down
MDRM	0.016	0.038	down
MINE	0.003	0.007	down
MJMD	0.000	0.015	down
MJMJ	0.003	0.025	down
MJNA	0.072	0.100	flat
MNTR	0.507	0.928	down
MYEC	0.012	0.027	down
MYHI	0.110	0.280	up
NDEV	0.040	0.165	down
NRTI	0.002	0.003	down
NTRR	0.045	0.110	down
OGRMF	0.304	0.615	down
OSLH	0.006	0.015	up
OXIS	0.023	0.033	down
PHOT	0.019	0.065	down
PLPL	0.220	0.315	up
PMCB	0.140	0.215	flat
PNTV	n/a	n/a	down
PZOO	0.011	0.017	flat
QEDN	0.001	0.003	flat
REDG	0.000	0.003	flat
RFMK	0.000	0.002	down
RSSFF	0.069	0.266	down
SING	0.008	0.016	flat
SKTO	0.000	0.004	down
SPRWF	0.141	0.230	down
SRNA	0.080	0.140	down
STEV	0.050	0.067	down
TAUG	0.004	0.008	down
THCZ	0.130	0.255	up
TRTC	0.090	0.180	down
TURV	0.710	1.11	up
TWMJF	1.420	1.860	flat
UPOT	0.150	0.550	down
USEI	0.000	0.003	down
UTRM	0.000	0.000	down
VAPE	0.510	0.795	flat
VAPR	0.030	0.090	down
VGPR	0.000	0.002	down
VHUB	0.019	0.040	up
VPCO	0.300	0.480	down
VPOR	0.000	0.003	down
WDHR	0.000	0.002	down
WOGI	0.004	0.009	flat
XTRM	0.001	0.004	down
XXII	0.820	1.160	flat

Posted in Bigger Picture