Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot,,, Gold’s lead trial balloon.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Potential for extending the corrective bounce above 1.1000 was interrupted by Monday”s drop to 1.0890, which retraced 61.8% of the rally from last week”s 1.0820 low. Back above 1.0960 and 1.0975 would resume the bounce to 1.1095. Otherwise, extending the pullback any deeper could resume the massive decline.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
One or two modest spikes up hadn”t stretched the rubber band enough for its snap back down to finally chip away at support. That didn”t change whether the ranging was distributive. Neither did Monday morning”s surge to 1204.70, which retraced entirely back down to unchanged under 1190.00. That was preceded by early weakness, so closing negative is the minimum requirement to start a break lower.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Surging Monday morning to test 17.15 was retraced entirely to prevent buyers from gaining traction. But piercing negative territory under 16.65 didn”t actually reverse the trending back down, which is the bearish pattern”s only missing element.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The next higher objective for a corrective bounce was rendered moot when Monday avoided probing at all above Friday”s 155-26 high before trending back down intraday under 154-20 to signal the bounce had ended already. The reversal extended down to test 153-08, so a bounce now has room up to 154-12 to maintain the reversal down.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Closing under 60.30 Friday prevented the session”s rally from gaining traction. Monday was spent ranging around the original 59.75 sell signal. Back under 58.70 should resume the decline, but breaking above 60.80 would more likely test 63.00 first.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down to fresh lows Sunday further delayed the potential for a buy signal. But closing Monday above Friday”s lows does allow a bottoming setup to form Tuesday, by probing Sunday night”s 2.60 low intraday and recovery back into Friday”s range again above 2.64, above 2.68 would be optimal. Bounces meanwhile should hold 2.71 as resistance.
Getting away with it?
Post-open plunge is almost fully recovered.
It”s too late to invalidate this morning”s bias-down signal. That triggered under 2104.25, and it put into play 2098.50. But since extending down to 2100.25, a rally has extended back to the 2113.50 open.
Is the bias-down target moot? No. Has the trend reversed back up? Possibly.
It”s too late to Invalidate the bias-down signal. It produced lower lows (down to 2100.25) after 10:15, so its 2098.50 target has become “unfinished business below” that requires an eventual test.
Meanwhile, probing under Friday”s lows neutralized their “ineffectual optimism.” We knew that would rob sellers of a lot of traction, along with still overlapping 2101.50. But the bounce I was expecting has extended well beyond my 2106.50 target.
And now this afternoon”s bias-up has triggered.
I”m not expecting a substantial durable recovery. But this afternoon”s 2118.00 bias-up target can be probed by 3 points of noise before suggesting a bigger rally is underway.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jun 2
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Tuesday”s econ calendar is active, but not high-profile, and with none of its items have a track record of influencing price action.
Gallup US ECI
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2114.00 | 2112.00 |
| …would target | 2120.00 | 2118.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2103.50 | 2101.50 |
| …would target | 2097.25 | 2095.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Trapping more longs.
Early buyers found out the hard way.
Overnight patterns can influence only the first 15 minutes of the cash session. So, if the pre-open Symmetrical Triangle”s second surge were going to fail, then it would be obvious quickly.
Naturally, the open blipped-up a couple of points to 2115.00. But then, sellers took obvious control, reversing down to test 2108.25. Recovering that through 9:45 would have marginalized sellers, but overlapping it meant nothing more than buyers failed.
Resolving down tested the 2104.25 bias-down signal. Its reaction up only attacked 2112.00 before resolving down again to 2100.25. This is a bias-down environment, triggered under 2104.25.
Having probed fresh lows after 10:15, nothing short of exiting the bias environment at 11:30 above 2115.00 can invalidate the bias-down. Friday”s ineffectually optimistic lows have been probed, but they”re still putting up a fight.
The 2098.50 bias-down target is in-play, probably on the way to probing last week”s 2096.00 lows by at least 2-3 points. A bounce has potential to 2106.50-2108.25. Back under 2101.50 (being tested now) would signal the decline had resumed already.