Posts by Rod David
The First Trade… Last chance to blast.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday afternoon”s rally recovered to close back above 2118.00, which isolated its probe to intraday. That intraday test of 2112.00 support (down to 2110.50) had marked the deepest dip to be considered as a pullback. Dipping any deeper intraday than to test 2112.00, or closing any lower than 2118.00, would have signaled a reversal back under Tuesday”s lows. Positive territory was avoided entirely, until a post-close surge (i.e. weak-handed) up to 2122.50.
Overnight action”s new info…
Flat-to-lower ranging once again began trending into Europe”s opens. And once again, trending plunged, soon touching 2112.00. The consolidation there didn”t extend down. Au contraire, it launched a surge back up to 2122.00. Its reaction down is touching 2118.00 as support.
If, then…
Already recovering above 2118.00 at yesterday”s open would have been expected to surge through the morning. Recovering through the close need not rally any more powerfully, but delaying it much past the open would again suggest another dip underway back down to 2112.00. This pattern can absorb that selling pressure only during an irrelevant timing window. And having done that overnight already, repeating it intraday would start making new lows likely.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2121.25 would start making the 2122.50 bias-up signal likely to trigger at 10:15 — more so, if 2124.00 were recovered at 9:45. Exitig the open under 2113.00 would be likely to trigger the 2115.00 bias-down signal at 10:15.
Morning bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2124.75 | 2122.50 |
| …would target | 2130.50 | 2128.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2117.00 | 2115.00 |
| …would target | 2112.25 | 2110.00 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Wednesday”s rally could have extended
Wednesday”s rally could have extended higher Thursday. Its reaction down from 2124 needed to be contained to an irrelevant timing window, likely overnight. And its test of 2118 or lower needed to be rejected quickly.
Thursday”s opening attempt to quickly recover 2118 was rejected. The entire session was spent probing under it. The entire session, that is, until the afternoon”s recovery finally extended back above 2118.
But it never extended into positive territory, not intraday.
Having recovered through the close, the bullish template would regard the test of 2118 as successful. As successful as if it were resolved through Thursday”s open. But that still depends on extending into positive territory. And that extension could develop overnight — already, 2122.50 is being tested.
Not extending into positive territory would be likely to revisit Thursday”s lows. And Thursday”s lows have chipped away at 2112 support. The only reason to revisit 2112 is to break under it, first to 2104.25, and then to probe 2-3 points under Tuesday”s 2096 low.
More detail is discussed in the post-market Wrap, recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjvpwvp
And here are the overnight chaRTroom links:
XP-Friendly: http://anymeeting.com/826-161-684
non-XP ilinc: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh
Daily Spot… Bounces.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday”s bounce extended grudgingly Thursday, recovering the 1.0910 bounce limit. The bounce could extend to 1.1095, but 1.0750 remains intact.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday”s momentary spike down to 1179.60 was recovered back into the narrow range around 1186.00. Tue-Wed stability couldn”t be confused with being stoic, and recovering back up into their range is not any more so bullish. A slightly higher bounce might stretch the rubber band before snapping back down into a new downleg, but it”s not required.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday”s blip-down filled an outstanding gap back before recovering back into the narrow range. No lower lows are required, but the price action is not accumulative.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The extended rally didn”t extend any high Thursday. But its initial reaction down didn”t extend, as the session ranged narrowly sideways. The “ineffectual pessimism” is likely to launch at least one more probe of fresh highs.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday”s gap down extended a little, but ultimately ended the day testing Wednesday”s close. It was a late surge only, so it”s not necessarily bullish, but the bounce can extended a little higher and delay resuming the decline..
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday already was greeted by gapping down. So, the EIA report wasn”t being greeted from a position of strength. And its reaction extended the gap down to lower lows at 2.70. A buy signal won”t be credible until Tuesday.
Pre-close view… Positive territory, or bust.
Attacking yesterday”s close isn”t bullish enough.
The afternoon”s no-bias environment triggered without having touched either bias signal. Price ranged narrowly for the next hour, flat-to-higher, but more flat than higher.
Now the final hour”s entry is testing 2120,00, which is essentially yesterday”s last-minute reaction down. So, still negative territory.
This recovery effort has expended a lot of buying pressure. And it might have refueled sellers. The difference may be in whether the 3:10-3:20 timing window can extend into positive territory, preferably above 2122.50. It could extend to 2133.00.
Extending higher at all would isolate the probe under 2118.00 to today”s session. Isolating it to last night would have been bullish for today. Otherwise, back under 2117.50 would start to signal that sellers are refueled, and that momentum is reversing down.