Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed May 27 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Tuesday”s overload of econ reports caught up with the three-day weekend. Wednesday”s is remarkably unremarkable. Mortgage apps and Redbook have no track record for influencing price action. The noon hour”s 5-year auction will have a higher-profile, and that can make it dangerous.
Jeffrey Lacker Speaks
TUE 7:10 PM ET
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr FRN Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2109.00 | 2106.50 |
| …would target | 2114.25 | 2112.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2103.75 | 2101.50 |
| …would target | 2098.00 | 2095.50 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
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Round two, or rewind some of round one?
Next lower objective met, and — so far — held.
The ongoing series of lower lows and lower highs never violated a bounce limit since the open triggered the 2115.75 sell signal. Tested bounce limits, but never higher than the first 3 minutes. And RSI positive divergences have resolved down.
That may be changing now, now that the 2099.75-2100.50 target area has been met. Now that the target area”s test is being accompanied by RSIs diverging positively. And now that a timing window is in-play.
The actual low at 2100.25 printed within 10-15 minutes of the bias environment lapsing at 11:30. Price and technicals can now represent one sponsorship waning, and a new sponsorship arriving.
My 2103.00 buy signal is being probed now, up to 2106.75. There”s enough time to enter the noon hour above the entire 2106.50-2110.00 range, which would seal a bottom — but that”s still difficult with 1-minute RSI already overbought.
Post-open review… Still low participation?
Overly fulfilling one expectation prevented fulfilling the other.
Not already recovering the weekend”s lower probes made the 2113.00 sleeper low”s test likely, indicating an early short-entry. It was tested, thoroughly.
Testing it early could have launched a recovery. But ounce limits held, while producing lower lows and avoiding any higher high. That has extended down to 2104.50.
That”s 2 points under the 2106.50 renewed bias-down target (for not recovering the 2115.75 bias-down target by 10:15). This leg”s next lower objective is 2099.75-2100.50.
Actually, there was an interim renewed bias-down target at 2110.00. Recovering it through 11:30 would seal a bottom. Back above 2108.50 would start to signal 2110.00 will at least be tested.
Meanwhile, oversold RSIs at 2104.50 make its retest likelier. And then likely to be broken by at least 4 points so long as bounce limits continue holding.
The weekend”s sell-off isn”t being
The weekend”s sell-off isn”t being isolated to Globex, as the pre-open bounce only touched this morning”s 2122.50 bias-down signal as resistance. Its reaction down is now attacking the 2115.25 overnight low. And that”s despite another weak GDP reading, which would seem to inhibit a bearish rate hike. Will a test of the week-old “lower prior high” in the 2113 area be able to end the weekend”s sell-off? We reviewed that during the pre-market Tour, and its recording is linked here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/tybktts