Posts by Rod David
Looking for tonight”s chaRTroom links?
Looking for tonight”s chaRTroom links? Look down:
XP-Friendly: http://anymeeting.com/509-204-687
non-XP ilinc: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh
Morning bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2109.00 | 2106.75 |
| …would target | 2115.25 | 2113.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2100.25 | 2098.00 |
| …would target | 2095.25 | 2093.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Does it feel like the
Does it feel like the drop into Tuesday afternoon”s low was hanging by a thread? That”s because it was. The timing wasn”t entirely inappropriate for ending the decline, but its 2096 low isn”t a calculably attractive spot for it.
Beginning the final hour”s rally aggressively would have been credible. But that was mostly reserved for the close — which is typically the weakest of hands, and not at all the strongest.
So, it”s more like sellers ere refueled, and less like buyers gained any traction.
Having said that, gapping up Wednesday and/or extending through Tuesday morning”s 2107-2108 bias environment high could reverse the trend back up. Regardless of how substantial it was, Tuesday”s drop was only one day and yet to be confirmed. Holding a retest of Tuesday”s 2096 low by 2-3 points could launch a recovery, too.
Otherwise, exiting the morning”s open at fresh lows, or at least not exiting the bias environment in rally mode, would suggest the bigger bearish pattern is unfolding… quickly.
Here”s the post-market Wrap recording for more detail (new chaRTroom links will be sent this evening):
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjvhbfc
Pre-close view… the opposite of up IS down.
Short-squeeze avoided, capitulation warning.
Here”s today”s chaRTroom links again
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
Exiting the bias environment back above the noon hour”s 2105.55 high would have made a short-squeeze likely through the close. And a short-squeeze at this stage of this pattern would be substantial, targeting 2114.25 as a correction, if not also fresh session highs as a reversal.
But the bias environment”s fresh low at 2096.50 are nearer than its 2103.00 high — 5 ticks lower vs. 5 points higher. And the bias environment has begun lapsing already, from under the noon hour”s low. Entering the final hour lower could melt down into the close.
Note that there is no requirement to trend down, simply as an alternative to bouncing. Firming back into the range isn”t very likely, but it”s possible. Anyway, the alternative to bouncing is still much likelier to steepen the slide.
Daily Spot… Bond detour only as a flight-to-safety?
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Closing Friday under 1.1095 had triggered an even bigger distributive pattern. Extending down through the weekend and Tuesday morning is already fulfilling much of the 1.0750 target, having tested 1.0870. The decline remains intact so long as 1.0915 now holds as resistance.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Chipping away at 1205.50-1208.00 support meanwhile held tests of 1213.00 resistance to avoid reversing momentum back up. Sliding sharply Monday night tested the next lower support at 1286.00. New lows at 1150.00-1154.00 are likely in-play.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Having failed last week”s attempt to recover 16.24-16.35 resistance, resuming the decline Tuesday compensated for the delay. Testing lower prior highs down to 16.65 Tuesday should extend down into the 16.45 area, too, or lower.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The bounce to 154-04/154-16 resistance wasn”t extended before Tuesday”s open, but neither was it rejected. That was exploited Tuesday morning during a broad stock market sell-off, and instead extended the rally back up to 156-10. Back under 154-30 would resume the decline.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sunday night”s dive from testing 59.75 had been retraced Monday, but never reversed. Monday”s night”s dip back down to the low had little chance to recover since a sell signal was already in-play. The drop extended down to test 57.70. Although unneeded at this stage, a lower close Wednesday would help to confirm the trend remains down, and likely targeting 55.00.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[Rolling coverage forward to Jul, which is at a 3-cent premium over Jun] The next lower objective for a pullback was already met during Monday”s Globex at 2.85-2.87. But Tuesday”s open gapped down below it and probed lower. A bounce has room up to 2.90 before signaling that momentum is reversing up.