Posts by Rod David
Afternoon bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2120.00 | 2117.50 |
| …would target | 2126.25 | 2124.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2111.25 | 2109.00 |
| …would target | 2105.50 | 2103.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Hope springs (a leak)
The open gapped up to the 2106.75 bias-up signal, pierced 2107.00-2108.00 resistance, and promptly reversed down. Trending back down at all was likely to start quickly, but not without limitations. I suspected that already touching 2102.50 just 3 minutes later was scaring away more sellers than it was attracting.
Live by the Grexit, die by the Grexit, repeat…
In fact, price firmed back up to 2108.00. The price surged on headlines touting a deal nearing with Greece”s creditors. The 2113.00 bias-up target was probed up to 2115.75. Overbought RSIs there require its eventual retest.
Live by the Gre… Wait, no… Die by… I lost my place…
Choppy ranging was ultimately resisted by the 2113.00 bias-up target through 10:15, and the bias-up signal did not renew. Another headline has somewhat denied the earlier one.
Being a bias-up environment, extending higher remains possible, but that”s not common when the target was already met and held through 10:15. Still, back above 2114.00 would signal the recovery extending higher.
Be sure that”s not just a headline reaction, because otherwise price can quickly collapse after neutralizing the attraction back to overbought RSIs at the 2115.75 high. Regardless, the bias-up environment could dip to 2106.75-2107.50 without reversing momentum down.
Overnight strength has continued overlapping
Overnight strength has continued overlapping 2107-2108. Higher and higher highs have reacted back down under 2107-2108, so we can”t rely on gapping up to extend higher. And gapping up to 2107-2108 without extending higher would instead be likelier to trend back down this morning, and to probe yesterday”s 2096 lows by 2-3 points. Details were reviewed during the pre-market Tour, recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/vsmrpxc
The First Trade… So, now Grexit means nothing?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
The sentiment of several dips during holiday trading bled into Tuesday”s open, which gapped down from 2124.25 and trended down sharply through the morning to 2100.25. Bouncing into the morning bias environment”s exit resolved down to new lows at 2096.00 as the afternoon bias environment”s exit. The final hour”s bounce to 2101.50 extended to 2107.00 into the Globex close.
Overnight action”s new info…
Tuesday”s post-close surge was clearly weak-handed. Backing-and-filling through Europe”s opens didn”t find a bid until testing 2101.50, then surging to 2107.75. Not surprisingly, that bid came amid Grexit news. Surprisingly, this morning”s Grexit news is seemingly worse than what was scapegoated for yesterday”s opening slide.
If, then…
So, die by the Grexit, re-birth by the Grexit? As much as Greece exiting the Euro creeps inevitably closer, sell-offs on its fears have been temporary. The ugly Euro chart makes the news seem closer, but S&Ps will shrug it off again if a second consecutive lower close is avoided today. Regardless of this pre-open fiming amid worse Grexit news, S&Ps still must gap up and extend higher to avoid at least retesting yesterday”s low.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2108.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2106.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2101.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Here are today”s chaRTroom links
Here are today”s chaRTroom links (First Trade blog post is coming soon)…:
XP-Friendly: http://anymeeting.com/542-632-592
non-XP ilinc: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh