Posts by Rod David
Morning bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2129.25 | 2127.00 |
| …would target | 2135.25 | 2133.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2119.75 | 2117.50 |
| …would target | 2114.25 | 2112.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, MET BIAS-DOWN TARGET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Pre-close view… Climbing the wall of hurry.
Relentless uptrend is fulfilling upside attractions.
Today”s ongoing series of higher highs and higher lows has extended well beyond 2107.00-2108.00 resistance. The post-open 2108.00 buy signal peaked quickly upon probing its 2113.00 bias-up target by 2 points.
The late-morning 2114.00 buy signal has developed more slowly, but relentlessly, and more substantially. Extending higher to product overbought RSIs helped to secure dips from reversing down. And those dips recovered every pullback limit”s test to fresh highs.
The afternoon”s 2124.00 bias-up target was just attacked to within 2 ticks. Meeting it to within 3 ticks disqualifies it from being “unfinished business above.”
Both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs were essentially overbought again at the high. But 1-minute was borderline, as well as making its own lower high, and it”s getting a little late. Hesitating through the bottom of the hour would likely trade flat-to-lower for the balance of the session.
One more attraction above is outstanding, which is the gap back to Friday”s 2124.25 close. Filling it isn”t required, not until recovering back to within its orbit. Unless the close is back under 2118.00, today”s rally will be likely to resume tomorrow.
That”s within 2 ticks of the afternoon”s 2124.00 bias-up target.
Daily Spot…Not so fast there, Euro.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Having extended down considerably on two consecutive sell signals, testing 1.0820 support reacted up Wednesday on favorable Grexit rumors, holding the 1.0910 bounce limit, and maintaining the 1.0750 target.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Only shallow weakness Tuesday night and Wednesday following Tuesday”s deep break to 1186.00, so the break wasn”t confirmed, but at least a probe of fresh low remains likely.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down at Wednesday”s open probed Tuesday”s low, but the session only ranged sideways narrowly instead of extending down another dime to 16.55 support.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday”s flight-to-safety wasn”t needed Wednesday, allowing for at least partial retracement from 156-11 down to 155-11. But that was recovered almost entirely as stocks climbed even further, which undermines the decline from resuming soon.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down to fresh lows testing 57.45 at Wednesday”s open was recovered temporarily into positive territory, but only to reverse back down to the lows and still targeting 55.00.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Spiking up at Wednesday”s open tried to confirm that Tuesday”s late recovery had ultimately held the 2.86 pullback objective. But the session held within Tuesday”s range, needing to recover 2.91 for a recovery to be credible.
Second wind.
Still trending to fresh highs.
This morning”s bias-up environment consolidated around the 2113.00 bias-up target, waiting patiently for the bias environment to start lapsing at 11:30. And then it began probing fresh session highs.
The noon hour”s exit extended higher, too, triggering the 2117.50 bias-up signal. It has been probed by almost 2 points.
I”ll give the rally every benefit of the doubt so long as its pullback limits hold. But that assumes the rally”s sponsorship is pretty strong-handed. Because two big parts of its template are suspicious.
First, gapping up through 2107.00-2108.00 would have been credible for recovering its resistance, but gapping up to it reacted down. Second, the later recovery above 2107.00-2108.00 held 2113.00 resistance through 10:15, undermining its sponsorship.
Be on guard for a reaction down, because almost any reaction down would likely be dramatic. Meanwhile, the rally”s momentum remains intact.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu May 28 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday”s calendar is busier than it is influential. The pre-open Jobless Claims hasn”t influenced price action in awhile, and Bloomberg is irrelevant. Housing sector reports won”t be surprising, at least not enough to alter policy. And the afternoon”s Fed speaker probably won”t offer any surprises, either. Meanwhile, the 7-year is starting to get far enough out the yield curve that its auction could inhibit price action before the results.
John Williams Speaks
2:20 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks
2:45 PM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET