Posts by Rod David
Post-open review… A deeper detour, or else.
Post-open bounce fails to fresh lows.
The pre-open bounce from retesting the precise 2115.25 overnight low could have avoided fresh lows. But only by quickly recovering 2118.00 and extending higher.
2118.00 was recovered almost immediately, and probed up to 2120.25. Then 2118.00 was probed as support, and its recovery avoided a fresh high.
The initial surge justified ignoring sell signals. The second surge”s limit required looking at sell signals.
And a sell signal triggered quickly, probing under 2117.50. That”s the bias-down signal, and its break fell quickly to touch its 2112.00 bias-down target. Although the bias-down target held through 10:15, fresh lows have attacked 2110.00.
Despite not renewing the bias-down signal, this still is a bias-down environment which can extend lower. Meanwhile, bounces must hold tests of the 2117.50 bias-down target, but it could be probed by a couple of points.. Back above 2114.00 (being tested now) would suggest a bounce is underway.
Not already exiting the bias environment at 11:30 in recovery mode would make a probe under Tuesday”s low likely.
The overnight dip”s recovery back
The overnight dip”s recovery back to 2120 resistance was retraced entirely back down to the overnight dip”s 2115.25 low. Even in the most bullish scenario, at least a slightly lower low is likely. An exception is to already greet the open probing above 2118 and extending higher quickly. Generally, delaying any recovery action from any level is likelier to resolve down than up. That was discussed during the pre-market Tour, recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/pcxbtwk
The First Trade.,, Healthy dose of pessimism?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
How volatile was Wednesday”s opening 15 minutes of volatility? The gap up to 2107.00-2108.00 resistance was rejected down to 2102.50, and then recovered up 2115.75. How much buying pressure was expended intraday? The morning”s consolidation resolved up to trigger another bias-up, and its 2124.00 target was met at the session high. How relevant is that level? It filled the gap back to Friday”s close, and its last-minute reaction down fell 4 points. No unfinished business was left outstanding above.
Overnight action”s new info…
.Wednesday”s late dip eventually extend down to attack 2117.50 support ahead of Europe”s opens, while China”s stock exchange crashed. Lower lows briefly touched 2115.25 and then reacted back up to 2120.00 resistance.
If, then…
.Leaving unfinished business helps trending to persist between sessions. So, neutralizing so many upside attractions yesterday has sent the recovery searching for another self-preservation technique. One of those is to search for buyers at a lower level. Determining the success of last night”s search may be as simple as recovering and defending positive territory through the open. The reward is new highs above 2134.00, and the punishment could be to retest Tuesday”s 2096.00 lows.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2122.25 after already touching it would be unlikely to trigger the 2127.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2116.00 would be likely to trigger the 2117.50 bias-down signal.
Ladies and gentlemen, I bring
Ladies and gentlemen, I bring you the link(s) to tonight”s chaRTroom… see you there:
XP-Friendly: http://anymeeting.com/039-559-609
non-XP ilinc: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh
Not gapping up above 2107-2108
Not gapping up above 2107-2108 wasn”t supposed to recover Wednesday. More so, the consequence of a failed recovery attempt was to retest Tuesday”s 2096 low. In fact, the
Wednesday”s rally gained traction. The bias environment was exited above the noon hour”s high, and although the final hour wasn”t entered above the bias environment”s high, the 3:10-3:20 window trended to new session highs. The reward for gaining traction is to control the next timing window, by trending higher Thursday morning.
Several caveats about that upside traction. First is that Wednesday afternoon”s bias-up target was met at the high, and its test immediately reacted down 4 points to prove that it did fulfill buying pressure. Second is that 3-minute RSI diverged negatively at the high, so its retest isn”t required. And a third caveat is that the gap back to Friday”s 2124.25 close was filled, neutralizing its attraction.
Did Wednesday”s last-minute reaction down express enough pessimism to be bullish from a contrarian perspective? That would enable the rally to resume, and to extend to new highs. Otherwise, failing to hold 2117.50 would rob the rally of its traction, and likely extend down to 2112-2113. Under there would reverse Wednesday”s momentum, targeting a probe under Tuesday”s 2096 low by 2-3 points.
Here”s Wednesday”s post-market Wrap recording (chaRTroom links will be sent this evening):
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/kfptszk