Posts by Rod David
Morning bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2130.50 | 2127.75 |
| …would target | 2135.50 | 2133.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2125.00 | 2122.50 |
| …would target | 2118.50 | 2115.75 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Pre-holiday weekend, low participation, inside
Pre-holiday weekend, low participation, inside day… None of which prevented intraday trending. At least, legs that resembled trending. Friday”s intraday trends have no implications, they did not form a pattern. But bouncing aggressively from one end of the range to the other is a continuation of what I had highlighted about Thursday — this market has no shortage of sentiment, and lacks only participation.
Friday created an objective above at 2133, which became unfinished business. It”s the product of a low-volume environment, so it”s likelier to be met amid less liquidity, or else at the start of volume expansion. Testing it Sunday night or Monday morning would be likeliest. Not yet testing 2133 above wouldn”t make plunging under 2115 any less credible in case of a news event.
This being a holiday weekend, there is no Saturday Review. Globex re-opens Sunday night and trades through 1:00pm ET Monday. The chaRTroom will be open (I”ll send its links that day). Meanwhile, here”s the link to Friday”s post-market Wrap, have a great weekend!
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/xmjxvmv
Pre-close view… Clinging to resistance.
Nothing relevant on a day like this, but it”s not done yet.
2126.00 had been probed already before the embargo was lifted on Yellen”s speech. Its knee-jerk reaction was essentially up, surging to 2129.75.
That was two hours ago. A pullback to 2126.00 has bounced back to 2128.00.
There”s no requirement to rally again today, just a vulnerability. Downside is less likely because unfinished business is above at 2133.00, and because sellers had plenty of opportunity already to break lower.
None of which protects this low-participation environment from a knee-jerk reaction down in case of a headline. Headlines and knee-jerk reactions can still cut either way.
REMINDER: This being a holiday weekend, there is NO weekend Saturday Review.
Daily Spot… Euro exhaustion, or on its way?
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The required third lower close wasn”t delayed long by Friday”s gap up. It was rejected immediately by a plunge to fresh lows at 1.1005, which hovered at the lows through the noon hour. Closing under 1.1095 now triggers a larger pattern that points much lower if confirmed by a second consecutive lower close Monday. That confirmation isn”t assured, since Friday”s drop may have been exacerbated by the impending holiday weekend.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Bouncing overnight to test 1213.00 resistance didn”t prevent retesting 1205.00 support intraday Friday. But still overlapping both instead of exceeding one of them prevented launching a trend in that direction.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
An overnight bounce attacked 17.35 whose recovery would signal 18.15 is in-play. Just closing above 17.25 would suggest the pullback had ended. Still testing 17.05 support did not preclude recovering either.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Extending Thursday”s rally overnight attacked 154-30 resistance, but reversed down through Friday”s open to test “lower prior highs” at 153-20. The detour makes the decline likely to resume aggressively if it is resuming at all.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Overnight weakness enabled Friday”s open to the 59.75 sell signal. Probing under it quickly was only retraced for the balance of the session to range around 59.75 and avoid triggering the sell signal.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
.Despite having held Thursday”s gap up through the close, overnight weakness filled the gap back down to Wednesday”s 2.91 close and probed under its low to test 2.88. Any delay to recovering 2.97 would more likely extend the pullback to 2.82 before launching an upleg.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon May 25 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
A three-day holiday weekend means thin-trading Friday afternoon. Globex will re-open Sunday night normally and trade through Monday”s noon hour.
Memorial Day
No regular trading hours
Globex close
1:00 PM ET