Posts by Rod David
Stuck in a rut.
Typical pre-holiday noise.
The pre-open plunge held its test of this morning”s 2123.25 bias-down signal. It was tested and retested pre-open, then tested again post-open for good measure. Its recovery tested 2128.00 several times to be fair.
But that didn”t extend higher to 2133.00, whose test is required for having held 2123.25. Instead, 2123.25 has been attacked again. Breaking under it would target 2121.75.
Regardless, 2133.00 has become unfinished business above. Its eventual test is required. Not necessarily today — there”s no particular timing to that, not on any day, let alone this low-volume pre-holiday session.
Nevertheless, back above 2126.00 (being tested now) would start to signal the late-morning dip was being retraced. Just returning to 2128.00 would make fresh session highs likely, presumably including 2133.00.
Afternoon bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2130.75 | 2128.00 |
| …would target | 2135.75 | 2133.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2123.75 | 2121.00 |
| …would target | 2118.50 | 2115.75 |
| Signal status: NOn-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Today’s bear market ended?
Pre-open drop runs into Friday Factor.
Trending is difficult to start on Fridays. So, the pre-open drop to support at the 2123.25 bias-down signal wasn”t likely to extend. In fact, a post-open blip-down touched it again before reacting up sharply to 2127.75.
Not much has happened since then. Yesterday”s 2128.00 futures close is natural resistance, and filling its gap has inhibited extending higher. That was a long time ago, without yet reversing down, so this appears to be ineffectual pessimism.
Have I said, yet, how difficult it is to trend on Fridays? Reacting from one end of the range to the other isn”t trending. And holding a test of the 2123.25 bias-down signal has put into play an offsetting test of the 2133.00 bias-up signal.
Back under 2125.25 would start to signal new lows, potentially to 2121.75. There is otherwise no requirement for a fresh low.
8:30”s econ report was greeted
8:30”s econ report was greeted by a bounce to 2129.50. The reaction”s plunge pierced the 2123.25 bias-down signal by an errant tick. Price has since ranged back up to 2125.25.
The catalyst is now history. Another econ report does come at 9:45. But the opening 15 minutes of volatility must already attract new sponsorship to the drop, or the drop will likelier recover.
Trending is difficult to start on Fridays, and then difficult to stop once stated. Here”s the pre-market Tour recording for more details:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/ypycfcx
The First Trade… Slow and steady is not a race.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday morning”s recovery from the overnight dip into negative territory was able to extend higher through the bias environment. But not beyond, other than a blip-up before the close. Otherwise, choppy ranging throughout the afternoon was centered around 2128.00-2130.25. No traction was gained for the effort, only a new high close, which occurred without probing prior highs.
Overnight action”s new info…
The relatively narrow, choppy range has persisted. Alternating between probing 1-2 points under 2128.00, and piercing 2130.25 above.
If, then…
This being a Friday, the morning”s bias tends to persist through the noon hour. This being a .three-day weekend, thinning participation makes trending difficult to start, and difficult to end once started, or to reverse if ended. Low-volume environments can reflect the will of weaker-handed participants, so the strong-handed distribution up here I”ve been documenting doesn”t prevent a break higher from extending in this low-volume environment.
First Trade…
Exiting the open above 2131.00 would be likely at least to test the 2133.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2125.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2133.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2121.75 would be likely to trigger the 2123.25 bias-down signal.