Posts by Rod David
Mixed signals. Mixed, tossed, soggy signals.
Morning range mired in between two attractions.
This morning”s no-bias signal was not invalidated. Exiting the bias environment above the open”s 2127.75 high would have done it, and it was probed just after 11:30. But it held, so the consequence of 10:15”s signal now becomes “unfinished business below” at 2119.25.
It was easier to reject at 10:30, just by recovering the 2127.25 bias-down signal itself. That bar attacked it to within 1 tick, and still held.
Price action since the open”s low has trended up, without gaining any traction, despite expending so much buying pressure. The “ineffectual optimism” is basically an accident waiting to happen. A valid break lower should collapse, or else it”s probably not a valid break lower.
I”m still willing to take a buy signal, knowing its reliability is suspect. But an intraday probe above yesterday”s 2128.75 high by 1-2 points just as noise can”t be discounted, especially not during the noon hour.
Afternoon bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2132.75 | 2129.50 |
| …would target | 2138.25 | 2135.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2127.50 | 2124.50 |
| …would target | 2122.50 | 2119.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… About last night.
Pre-open drop extends into the open, and out of it.
Sliding from overnight highs greeted the open at this morning”s 2127.25 bias-up signal. That was the extent of its support, as post-open action plunged to 2122.25.
That was yesterday”s noon hour low. Any lower through the opening 15 minutes of volatility would have invalidated the rally”s traction it gained yesterday afternoon. It held, so the reward of probing yesterday”s highs this morning remains intact.
But there”s a contradictory signal. The 2127.25 bias-up signal didn”t trigger, after having tested it, which puts into play an offsetting test of the 2119.25 bias-down signal.
This contradictory signal could have been negated by recovering 2127.25 at 10:30. It was being attacked then to within 1 tick, but not recovered. It can be negated at 11:30 by exceeding the open”s 2127.75 high. In reality, 11:30 ought to be probing much higher, if at all.
Otherwise, 2127.25 is the range”s upper-end. It”s being tested now, and back under 2125.25 would resume the post-open drop targeting 2119.25, and potentially 2114.25, too.
Plus ca change… Remember that
Plus ca change… Remember that overnight surge which tested the target”s 2133 upper-end? It has now been retraced back down to 2127.25, which is this morning”s bias-up signal. It is support from above, but resistance from below. So, holding it or not through a relevant timing window could be predictive of the balance of the morning, if not of the session. Retesting or attacking the overnight high this morning remains likely, but that depends on post-open action almost immediately ignoring this pre-open dip. Extending it still could be recovered, but that”s more problematic. Details were discussed in the pre-market Tour, recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/tybkspt
The First Trade… Taking out targets.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
The bullish WedEX signal continued its influence through Monday morning. Recovering above 2115.00 was extended first to attack 2121.00, and then 2125.00. The afternoon”s attack on 2129.00 held up long enough for the rally to gain traction. A last-minute dip tested 2125.00 into the close.
Overnight action”s new info…
Monday”s late 5-point dip from attacking 2129.00 was recovered just enough to pierce it by midnight. That held until Europe”s opens, which then doubled the gain by surging to 2134.00. The surge hasn”t extended, and consolidating around 2131-2132.00 is now dipping to 2130.00.
If, then…
Reversing down this morning is possible, since the target”s 2133.00 upper-end has been met. But its intraday retest likely because yesterday”s rally gained traction. The reward is control of the next morning”s bias environment — also with some complexity or trending. Otherwise, except for an errant tick at 2129.00, only a singular leg produced 2134.00, so it is not necessarily a “new Globex trend extreme” that requires intraday retest. A pre-open dip back to or under yesterday”s highs would make the overnight high”s retest likelier to hold, instead of extending higher today to 2140.00. Caveat: A pre-open dip into negative territory still could extend down this morning — after all, a big target has been met.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2133.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2132.25 bias-up target through 10:15, renewing the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2130.00 would be likely to trigger the 2127.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2127.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.