Posts by Rod David
Following are tonight”s chaRTroom links.
Following are tonight”s chaRTroom links. We”re working on another candidate to test, which would replace the Anymeeting signal (the ilinc/Mitel will continue). It won”t be done abruptly, but if you notice the chart missing, I”ll have posted the new link.
Don”t worry — the replacement candidate”s controls are intuitive and I”ll send instructions. If needed, the Anymeeting and ilinc/Mitel can always be made available.
Thanks for helping to test the new candidates. We”ve used ilinc/Mitel for 6-7 years, so it”s very important that its replacement be thoroughly vetted and accepted by subscribers. Tonight”s links are:
XP-Friendly: http://anymeeting.com/748-789-958
non-XP ilinc: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh
Morning bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2130.50 | 2127.25 |
| …would target | 2135.50 | 2132.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2122.50 | 2119.25 |
| …would target | 2117.50 | 2114.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Monday”s new high close was
Monday”s new high close was more impressive than the morning”s follow-through of last week”s bullish WedEX signal. Not that the follow-through wasn”t impressive, but its influence ended by noon Monday. The balance of the session had freedom to trend back down.
And it didn”t trend back down. The balance of the session didn”t even range sideways. The rally gained traction by exiting the bias environment at 2:30 above the noon hour”s high, and then trending higher through the 3:10-3:20 proxy window. It wasn”t much trending, so its extension wasn”t much — no more than it had to be, 2128.75.
But the new high wasn”t rejected. It was retraced, sliding 4 points into the cash session close. But the last relative low at 2125.50 was still being overlapped, not broken. So long as Tuesday”s open isn”t breaking under Monday”s 2122.50 noon hour low, the rally should control the morning by trending up to fresh highs… with room up to 2133.
Here”s more detail in the post-market Wrap recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bwzpyvc
PROGRAMMING NOTE:
chaRTroom will be offline for a short while as we try installing and initiating an alternative conferencing software to test. I”ll post/email chaRTroom links later. As always, we”ll implement the Anymeeting back-up in case of any difficulty.
Pre-close view… Hardly restrained.
Still probing fresh highs.
Sellers were unable to exploit the bullish WedEX”s expiring influence. The noon hour”s narrow ranging barely pierced its 2123.00 pullback limit. The afternoon”s noN-bias signal allowed fresh highs up to 2127.50.
That”s within 3 ticks of the 2128.00 target.
A 2-point dip has recovered into the final hour. But although the bias environment was exited above the noon hour”s high, the final hour wasn”t entered above the bias environment”s high. That would have signaled buyers gaining traction.
There”s a proxy — trending up through the 3:10-3:20 timing window could signal a short-squeeze underway with room up to 2133.00.
Unless the 3:10-3:20 timing window were to trend down, the session continues to be more vulnerable to trending up than to ranging or to reversing down.
Daily Spot… Euro hanging on to support by its fingernails.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday”s 1.1328-1.1472 outside day that began by gapping down to the lower-end of Thursday”s 1.1348-1.1457 range was still considered bearish, since the close was still overlapping Thursday”s high. And still overlapping Thursday”s high meant that gapping down Monday doesn”t require filling the gap back to Friday”s high. In fact, Monday”s session trended down intraday, probing under Thursday and Friday”s ranges to test 1.1300. Almost any lower close Tuesday would confirm Monday”s reversal was extending.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night”s high touched the 1232.00 target, but wasn”t touched intraday as Monday”s session fluctuated narrowly around last week”s 1227.70 high. There is no unfinished business above, but upward momentum remains intact so long as 1224.00 now holds as support.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday”s opening surge to fresh highs testing 17.75 consolidated in positive territory throughout the day, closing above prior highs, keeping upward momentum intact.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday”s nearly 3-point rally to 155-20/155-27 didn”t comport to the template we were tracking, but Monday”s substantial retracement did. Stopping optimistically short at the upper-end of Thursday”s range now requires bounces to hold 154-08/154-12 to maintain Monday”s downward momentum. The 150-25 target remains intact, preferably confirmed by closing Tuesday under Thursday”s 152-12 low.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
[Rolling coverage forward from Jun to Jul, 1.65 premium] Suday”s initial firming tried again to rally out of the 60.30 pullback limit, but its surge to 61.70 was retraced to 59.85 — not quite reversing down, but requiring an almost immediate recovery above 60.75-61.00 to avoid a new downleg.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
No higher objectives are outstanding, but Monday”s narrow sideways ranging didn”t reject the uptrend”s momentum..