Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue May 19 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday”s pre-open housing sector report may be influential because of the focus on it being the day”s only high-profile report. Neither it nor the day”s only other report is likely to be strong, which could be bullish for the morning. The afternoon”s dovish Fed speaker might have added to this bullishness previously, but nowadays that”s true only in relief for not sounding too hawkish.
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Charles Evans Speaks — dove
3:00 AM ET
Brave new world (again).
Surge to new highs is now on its own legs.
The bias environment”s consolidation broke higher to touch its 2123.25 bias-up signal at 11:30 as the bias environment began lapsing. That has been probed up to 2124.75.
And, still, both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs are overbought simultaneously. A reaction down is possible, but not very likely to reverse the trend down.
Reacting down could test 2120.25 as support before suggesting the momentum is reversing down. Meanwhile, the rally”s minimum 2128.00 target remains in-play.
As for the bullish WedEX, its influence is now zero. Monday”s behavior was more aggressive than Friday. Its slope was steeper, its productivity was greater, and it was active (probe resistance) instead of passive (range bound).
Meanwhile, there remains potential for a new trend high close today. And potential for a new trend high to be reversed abruptly. First things, first.
Afternoon bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2128.00 | 2124.50 |
| …would target | 2133.25 | 2130.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2120.00 | 2116.75 |
| …would target | 2115.25 | 2111.75 |
| Signal status: NOn-BIAS, BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Keeping optimism in-check.
Opening surge underscores a bullish WedEX.
The pre-market Tour”s setups didn”t entertain a sell signal. Even the only buy signal was required to be aggressive. Generally, staying away from 2115.00 and getting away from it aggressively would be appropriate for rallying out of the overnight dip.
Rallying out of the overnight dip is important for the bullish WedEX influence to remain credible. So, firming to 2116.00 steepened into the open, trending back to Sunday night”s 2120.75 high.
Its reaction down was likely to recover so long as 2116.75 held. It was attacked to within 1 tick, and now 2120.75 is being attacked to within 1 tick, too.
All of which is developing at or under unchanged. And this is a no-bias environment. With optimism still restrained, sell signals might not be contemplated this morning, at all. Not from above 2116.75, or without already probing egregiously above the 2123.25 bias-up signal.
Pre-open action around 2115 couldn”t
Pre-open action around 2115 couldn”t be interpreted as holding its support, necessarily. But it wasn”t yet breaking lower. Trending up from it through the open — aggressively, preferably without even attacking 2115 — would make the bullish WedEX bias that much more credible for extending through Friday”s 2122.75 pre-open high. Delaying any bullish behavior could render WedEX moot… We discussed details in the pre-market Tour:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/jrtjmxc