Posts by Rod David
Reminder: This morning”s Saturday Review
Reminder: This morning”s Saturday Review starts early at 9:00am ET, and ends early at 9:45. It”s our last for a couple of weeks due to the intervening holiday weekend. See you soon!
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SPECIAL START TIME: 9:00am ET
SPECIAL START TIME: 9:00am ET
This weekend”s Saturday Review starts 30 minutes earlier. We”ll finish in under an hour. After discussing a couple of scenarios for the market”s new high, we”ll review as many stock chart analysis requests as time allows. See you at 9:00am ET…
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Morning bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2127.00 | 2123.25 |
| …would target | 2132.50 | 2128.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2115.50 | 2111.75 |
| …would target | 2109.50 | 2105.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
The dip into and out
The dip into and out of Friday”s open found its low upon probing a couple of points under 2115. An increasingly narrow range around it persisted through the bias environment. It was less a struggle between buyers and sellers, and more a struggle to keep buyers and sellers from going home. Such is a Friday no-bias environment.
The afternoon was already firming, albeit still stuck to 2115. But the balance of the session trended up when the bias environment began lapsing at 2:30. Or, at least, it resembled trending. The market was uncomfortable trading as low as it had, and ended the day returning to its comfort zone. I wouldn”t build much more motivation into it than that.
The late bullish WedEX”s vulnerability won out of the threats it endured, so its influence Monday morning gets every benefit of the doubt. We”ll discuss how to play that, and what else to expect during this pre-holiday week, at this weekend”s Saturday Review. Links will be sent overnight. IT BEGINS EARLY AT 9:00 AM ET AND LASTS ONLY 45 MINUTES — I”LL WORK THROUGH AS MANY STOCK REQUESTS AS TIME ALLOWS.
Here”s Friday”s post-market Wrap recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/fbfwwjs
Daily Spot… Bond’s boom.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Friday to Thursday”s intraday low was recovered back into positive territory, probing above Thursday”s high. Closing under 1.1380 would start signaling momentum reversing down, but there is no other signal meanwhile.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Trending down overnight to 1210.60 bottomed upon gapping down Friday, with its reaction soon filling the gap back up to Thursday”s 1224.80 close. The 1232.00 target remains intact.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight backing-and-filling to 17.25 support barely registered by Friday”s open, which further formed an Ascending Triangle while retesting Thursday”s highs.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday”s high didn”t hold. The 154-16 bounce limit didn”t hold. Wednesday”s test of the bounce limit up to 155-02 didn”t even hold. Friday”s open gapped up and ran intraday to attack 156-00, which was literally off of the chart for the pattern I was tracking. Nevertheless, potential to new lows remains intact because of the gap left outstanding back to Thursday”s close, and its eventual test will target 150”25. Meanwhile, closing under 154-30 would signal the bounce had failed, and above 156-04 would be bullish for extending higher.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Lower lows retested the 58.65 pullback limit Friday morning and reacted back up to test 59.30 resistance. That”s not bearish, and it”s potentially bullish to the degree that an opportunity to slide was avoided.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
No unfinished business above going into Friday”s session allowed early weakness, but it was recovered to fresh highs intraday above 3.03. Now the rally”s momentum remains intact so long as 3.91 holds as support.