Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon May 18 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Monday”s housing sector data will have a chance to influence price action, but not much — and probably none if not for being announced post-open.
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Never too late for a late signal. Not lately.
Not much trending. Not, yet.
The 2122.75 pre-open high never got complex, so it never became a “new Globex trend extreme” that would have required being retested intraday. Its reaction down ultimately extended to 2113.25, but that was just the lower-end of congestion centered around 2115.00.
2115.00 is the line-in-the sand between trending down or bottoming. A mid-morning bounce to 2118.00 was retraced right back down into resuming the congestion centered around 2115.00.
Ranging narrowly around 2115.00 isn”t in itself predictive. But not breaking under it through timing windows changes, despite being well postured, does undermine sellers. Since 2115.00 represents yesterday”s last relative lows, which are holding, the burden of proof is on sellers despite spending the morning in negative territory.
There is still room for noise down to 2111.75, Not recovering when the noon hour lapses would be bearish. Its dip would otherwise be irrelevant. There is also room for noise up to 2117.50. Exceeding it at any time would start signaling the overnight high”s likely retest is underway.
Remember that a bullish WedEX triggered. It triggered late, so any of the foregoing bearish scenarios would take precedence. But holding 2115.00 through timing window changes does keep the door open to trending up this afternoon.
Afternoon bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2124.00 | 2120.00 |
| …would target | 2129.75 | 2126.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2113.50 | 2109.75 |
| …would target | 2108.00 | 2104.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Bulls expiring.
Shallow blip-up into a post-open downtrend.
The pre-open pullback managed to touch 2117.75, which was yesterday afternoon”s bias-up target, and its last-minute high. All of that support mustered only a blip-up to 2120.50, stopping 1 tick short of my bias-up signal.
The balance of the opening 15 minutes trended down. So did the 45-minute bias timing window. Being expiration, this could signal a downtrend for the day.
But the blip-up undermined that setup. And not actually touching the bias-up signal prevents actually targeting a test of the 2109.00 bias-down signal. There is room down to it, but no requirement to get there.
On another note, the late WedEX signal is much less vulnerable to inverting. Exiting the bias environment back above 2117.00 would further decrease that vulnerability.
Meanwhile, a fresh low at 2111.75 could end this morning”s selling. Under it could extend to 2109.00.
Optimism is a necessary element
Optimism is a necessary element to fueling a rally. Excessive optimism is a necessary element to ending it. Last night”s surge to a new high didn”t attract reinforcements that might soak up its potential excess. But at least a pre-open pullback is helping that excess to evaporate. Of course, evaporating too quickly can risk shifting momentum back down, and evaporating the optimism altogether. We discussed the setups during the pre-market Tour, recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/wzcmjhv
And here are the chaRTroom links again:
XP-Friendly: http://anymeeting.com/182-238-610
non-XP ilinc: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh