Posts by Rod David
The First Trade… Careful what you ask for.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday”s gap up to 2109.00 reacted down immediately as the cash session crowd”s pessimism was allowed to interfere. But the morning”s 2105.00 bias-up target held as support, renewing the bias-up signal, and quickly producing fresh highs. The rally extended higher through the afternoon to fulfill its 2117.75 bias-up target, 2 points short of touching the 2119.75 prior high, and 3 points short of my longstanding target for its retest. Extending the open”s gap up served by proxy to trigger a late bullish WedEX.
Overnight action”s new info…
The rally eventually resumed, surging to 2122.75 ahead of Europe”s opens. There has been no improvement since then, as price ranges choppily sideways above yesterday”s highs. The new high was produced by a single surge from under yesterday”s high, and it has yet to be probed, so it is NOT a “new Globex trend extreme” that would otherwise require being retested intraday.
If, then…
This being Expiration, there are a couple of extra features to the usual Friday Factors. The most important is that gapping open is vulnerable to being the session extreme. So, ticking down immediately at the open and trending down overall through it would warn that WedEX is inverting to bearish. WedEX triggered late, so it remains vulnerable. Avoiding those two conditions — tick/trend higher post-open — would diminish the WedEX inversion vulnerability. Whether inverting down or not, trending is likely today.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2123.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2120.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2115.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Tonight”s chaRTroom links: XP-Friendly: http://anymeeting.com/805-629-530
Tonight”s chaRTroom links:
XP-Friendly: http://anymeeting.com/805-629-530
non-XP ilinc: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh
Morning bias
| FRI signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2124.75 | 2120.75 |
| …would target | 2129.75 | 2126.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2112.75 | 2109.00 |
| …would target | 2107.00 | 2103.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Thursday”s post-market Wrap was sort
Thursday”s post-market Wrap was sort of an abbreviated Bigger Picture, so be sure to watch it if you didn”t attend. The elaboration was due to Thursday”s new high close — albeit not an intraday high — and the bullish WedEX that forecasts extending higher into and out of the weekend. It”s not “unfinished business above,” but there isn”t any other.
Besides triggering late, WedEX”s influence doesn”t start until Friday afternoon, which could be greeted from a morning slide. Or, it could be greeted from a morning rally. Thursday afternoon”s 2117.75 bias-up target was met too late to attract counter-trend sponsorship, which is a tactic that rallies often employ to maintain momentum. An interim dip under 2114.25 would target 2111.75, and potentially 2106.25.
Will the next higher target at 2128 be met tomorrow? Monday? Before a big drop? Ever? Here”s the post-market Wrap recording for more detail:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/rkrfbzv
I”ll post new links overnight to view the chaRTroom. Currently, they”re :
Win – XP friendly: http://anymeeting.com/164-025-052
non-xp ilinc-Mitel: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyyts
Pre-close view… Spittin’ distance.
Bias-up target neutralized. Buyers, too?
The bias environment was exited above the noon hour”s high. But the final hour”s entry was within the bias environment”s range. So, buyers haven”t gained traction for their efforts. Meanwhile, their efforts have been rewarded by coming to within 3 ticks of the 2117.75 bias-up target.
Extending higher through the 3:10-3:20 window would serve by proxy for having entered the final hour meekly. In fact, the window just opened by probing fresh highs.
That 3:10-3:20 can become bearish if its rally effort fails. Exiting the window back under the highs it started probing would trap longs, not shorts.
So long as 2116.25 were to hold a test as support, the balance of the session could extend to new highs. Back under 2114.75 would signal momentum reversing down for a corrective dip to 2111.75.