Posts by Rod David
Sellers gained traction for their
Sellers gained traction for their efforts Monday. But hold-short was not considered. We precluded it around 2102, after a sell signal there had triggered. Its target remained intact — a retest of 2099.50”s oversold RSIs, probably down to 2098.50 — and both were tested at the cash session close and futures close.
In fact, the selling extended to test 2096 after the close. That”s still not a hold-short, because there”s no “unfinished business below.” There is no greater likelihood for extending down overnight, only room for noise down to 2091.25.
Extending down overnight could produce a very bearish session Tuesday, if not recovered by the open. Meanwhile, having trended down through the close, gapping up Tuesday above Monday afternoon”s 2108.75 high would form a session-long rally setup. More on that is in the post-market Wrap recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/wzcmpfy
Here”s chaRTroom links to view overnight action:
Win – XP friendly: http://anymeeting.com/628-785-210
non-xp ilinc-Mitel: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh
Pre-close view… Setting up on the back tees.
Sellers gaining traction as they meet more downside targets.
The offsetting test of this morning”s 2104.25 bias-down signal had been met to within 3 ticks. That was close enough to neutralize its attraction. But it didn”t attract buyers, instead extending down to 2099.50.
Oversold RSIs at the 2099.50 low require its retest. Its retest is likely, down to 2098.50, so long as 2103.00 isn”t recovered first (being probed now).
Meanwhile, the final hour was entered under the bias environment”s low. This followed the bias environment exiting under the noon hour”s low. Sellers gained traction, and their reward is to control the next morning. Not just piercing a fresh low, but trading exclusively negative, and possible trending down.
That reward can be avoided by rallying instead. But the only credible rally tomorrow would begin by gapping up.
Currently, a bounce is testing 2104.25. Extending higher can leave the “unfinished business below” outstanding. But back under 2101.50 would target 2098.50.
Daily Spot… Long bond’s correction goes long
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The reaction down from last week”s 1.1380 target was extended Sunday night. Gapping down Monday to 1.1150 ranged sideways intraday, and closing lower Tuesday would confirm a new downleg in-play — if not also that the last upleg”s bubble was popping.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Choppy action initially held 1182.70 Sunday night, but Monday morning probed sharply lower intraday. It was recovered through the close, but not above 1187.00, so the greater vulnerability remains resuming the decline targeting fresh lows under 1170.00 down to 1150.00-1154.00.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
16.15 support wasn”t very threatened intraday Monday, and held through the close. It can still be probed by a dime before suggesting that a new downleg may be underway.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having gotten ahead of itself by bouncing so much so quickly from testing 153-10, there was likelihood for a pullback to at least 154-30. Monday probed it much more deeply to attack 154-00. Not recovering 154-30 Tuesday would make 153-10”s retest likely.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Despite last week”s pullback to the 58.65 limit ending in a Pivot Reversal, the setup did not immediately launch a rally Monday. The pullback limit did persist, but a temporary intraday dip probe under it can”t be discounted.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Abbreviating the corrective dip under 2.76 Friday in order to extend higher was then extended even higher to gap up Sunday night at 2.91. But Monday morning only ranged narrowly around Friday”s close, before dipping further into the afternoon — still vulnerable to correcting back down to 2.63-2.67.
Not taking yes for an answer.
Neutralizing the objective below hasn”t attracted sellers.
Holding the 2112.00 bias-up signal triggered no-bias. Its objective was an offsetting test of its 2104.25 bias-down signal. That has been fulfilled by attacking it to within 3 ticks.
That was awhile ago. So much time has elapsed since then without attracting buyers, And an attempt failed to exit the bias environment back above 2112.00 which would have invalidated 2104.25”s attraction altogether.
Back above 2108.00 (being touched now) and 2109.25 would signal a late rally underway, if only to test this afternoon”s 2112.75 bias-up signal. Meanwhile, fresh lows would remain possible, if not likely.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue May 12 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Tuesday”s JOLTS report follows Friday”s stunning reaction to the monothly Employmen Situation report. Its data can undermine the report by reflecting more strength, but probably not surprise it by reflecting any additional economic weakness.
Greece 750 million Euro payment due
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
9:00 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
John Williams Speaks — dove
12:45 PM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET