Posts by Rod David
Afternoon bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2118.00 | 2112.75 |
| …would target | 2123.25 | 2118.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2111.75 | 2106.75 |
| …would target | 2106.75 | 2101.50 |
| NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Climing a greased pole.
Post-open surge starts too low to cover its hurdle.
Friday”s buyers gained no traction for their efforts. So, extending higher this morning required immediately extending through Friday”s highs, if not actually gapping up to and through them.
But this morning”s 2110.00 opening print was under Friday”s 2111.00 cash session close. It did surge quickly, albeit not immediately, to pierce the 2112.00 bias-up signal. That was also a buy signal, but it was never exceeded higher than its first three minutes. Three times.
The first probe above 2112.00 reacted down to 2109.50, the second reacted down a little deeper, and the third probe up to 2113.50 reacted down to 2105.50.
That last reaction down came after the bias signal had invoked the grace period through 10:30. Having avoided bias-up, an offsetting test of the 2104.25 bias-down signal is in-play. Probing it down to 2101.50-2102.50 wouldn”t be surprising.
Currently, a bounce is attacking 2111.00. Back under 2108.50 would start to signal another downleg in-play, presumably to probe under overnight lows. Entering the noon hour above 2112.00 would instead suggest that sellers are marginalized for the day.
Slow-playing strength before the open?
Slow-playing strength before the open? Aimless flat-to-lower ranging had been retraced to attack Sunday night”s 2110.50 opening peak. A reaction down to 2108 has recovered to attack that surge”s high. If this is “restrained optimism,” then immediate post-open strength through 2111-2112 would be credible for extending higher this morning. It would be vulnerable to whipsawing back down, of course, but much less so if maintained through 9:45. Whipsawing back down, or not even surging post-open, would remain vulnerable to probing the overnight low — perhaps to test 2101.50 or lower before the stretched rubber band can snap back up.
Here”s the pre-market Tour recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/fbfwxxy
The First Trade… Back to business.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
.Friday morning”s bullish reaction to the pre-open Employment Situation report had gapped up above the critical 2090.00-2095.25 resistance. Higher and higher resistance was tested until the upward momentum finally peaked at 2013.00 through the bias environment”s exit. Sideways ranging into the weekend held 2107.50.
Overnight action”s new info…
Flat-to-lower ranging gyrated as low as 2105.50, where a surge has now attacked the 2110.50 open. But the overnight range is still relatively narrow.
If, then…
If the open isn”t rejecting Friday”s rally, then it is likely to extend higher — probably today, if not already this morning. Opening only slightly in negative territory could gain traction by trending down through the open, And still be absorbed. But opening even slightly in negative territory would be unlikely to extend higher this morning. Opening in positive territory and quickly extending through Friday”s high may be the only reliable start to a morning rally.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2111.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2114.75 would be likely to trigger the 2112.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.
Good morning! Very narrow flat-to-lower
Good morning! Very narrow flat-to-lower ranging isn”t making any reliable forecast. Not extending Friday morning”s rally doesn”t equate to rejecting it. I”ll have more observations and parameters in the First Trade blog post, and then will see you at the pre-market Tour. Meanwhile, here”s chaRTroom links to view the action:
Win – XP friendly: http://anymeeting.com/661-781-179
non-xp ilinc-Mitel: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh