Rod David – Page 1869 – If, Then… Market Timing

China lowers its interest rates

By Rod David | May 10, 2015 - 5:10 pm

China lowers its interest rates again. Its effect has been diminishing, so it will be interesting whether it registers overnight. We”ll soon see, as Globex opens in less than an hour. Below are the links to view price action. I”ll be checking in, and if I don”t see you then, I”ll see you in the morning the pre-market Tour:

Win – XP friendly: http://anymeeting.com/103-920-957
non-xp ilinc-Mitel: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh

Posted in S&P

The Universe, week of May 11 2015… Looking for leadership.

By Rod David | May 9, 2015 - 6:31 pm

Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]

Links to ||
Last week”s Universe || Prior week”s Universe || Previous week”s Universe ||

Last week”s most promising anecdote was also a failure. So far. But it was also a success, also so far. That was Thursday”s one-day doubling of MCIG.

Bullish guidance triggered a 22% gap up. It ranged sideways through the noon hour, and then took off through the final hour. Its high touched prices last seen all of five weeks ago. That”s not very long, at all, so it illustrates how much selling had been flushed out. And Wednesday”s close was a new low, creating a gap that will want to be filled eventually.

That one-day doubling is starting to sound like a one-day wonder. In fact, Thursday”s rally didn”t extend any higher Friday. But its reaction down did hold a 61.8% corrective limit. And then closed above the same calculation”s 38.2% measurement. That”s success. Holding Friday”s low would allow extending higher to test .15. Filling the gap below first could allow a more durable rally leg to form.

Either way, it is somewhat reassuring to see enthusiasm. Enthusiasm begets enthusiasm. One company”s bullish outlook in a vacuum is irrelevant. Two companies can portend a trend. Two companies in the same category can be a watershed event.

AndI notice that VAPE popped-up 33% (which is 50% off its low) from a Double Bottom — just two days prior to MCIG”s surge. And its 61.8% retracement held, too.

Recall my comments last week, that the sector needs leadership. I had warned the prior week that GWPH and INSY were topping, and they did fall sharply the next week. Some of its sellers had bought for the pharmaceutical exposure. But those who bought for the Cannabis play are looking for somewhere to reinvest. Good news from the sector, and big pops in reaction, suggest that opportunity is alive.

Marijuana Stock Universe for May 11 2015
Reference this table during stock reactions
4-week	# up:	12	11.88%
trends*	# flat:	22	21.78%
	# down:	67	66.34%
*The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks.

symbol	support	resistance	4-week trend
ACGX	0.000	0.003	flat
AERO	2.310	4.030	down
AGTK	0.015	0.040	down
AMMJ	0.360	0.570	down
ARNA	3.800	5.030	flat
ATTBF	0.071	0.117	down
AVTC	0.045	0.400	down
AXXU	0.037	0.140	down
BLOZF	0.280	0.570	up
BLPG	0.120	0.370	down
BNRDF	0.530	0.615	down
BRDT	0.032	0.094	down
BTFL	0.071	0.232	down
CANL	0.750	1.250	down
CANN	1.690	4.600	down
CANV	1.650	2.100	down
CARA	9.750	10.650	flat
CBDS	1.830	5.630	down
CBGI	0.000	0.005	down
CBIS	0.027	0.038	down
CGRW	0.360	0.750	flat
CHUM	n/a	n/a	down
CNAB	0.530	0.750	flat
DEWM	0.003	0.005	flat
DIGP	0.035	0.100	up
DSCR	0.000	0.025	down
EAPH	0.013	0.028	down
EDXC	0.019	0.047	down
ENDO	0.012	0.020	down
ENRT	0.032	0.050	down
ERBB	0.006	0.010	down
ETST	n/a	n/a	flat
EXMT	0.000	0.004	down
FITX	0.005	0.012	down
CAFS	0.025	0.066	up
FSPM	0.000	0.250	down
FULL	3.100	3.640	down
FWDG	0.000	0.002	down
GBLX	0.300	0.460	up
GRCU	0.000	0.004	down
GRNH	0.055	0.098	down
GWPH	99.450	117.350	up
HEMP	0.016	0.025	down
ICBU	0.002	0.011	down
IGRW	0.002	0.004	flat
IMLFF	0.175	0.275	flat
INCC	0.001	0.007	flat
INSY	49.950	59.750	flat
ITNS	0.006	0.011	down
LATF	0.001	0.003	down
LXRP	0.120	0.200	up
MCIG	0.071	0.106	down
MCPI	n/a	n/a	flat
MDBX	0.600	0.850	down
MDCN	0.005	0.022	flat
MDRM	0.016	0.038	down
MINE	0.003	0.007	down
MJMD	0.000	0.015	down
MJMJ	0.003	0.025	down
MJNA	0.055	0.080	down
MNTR	0.507	0.928	down
MYEC	0.012	0.027	down
MYHI	0.210	0.330	up
NDEV	0.040	0.165	down
NRTI	0.005	0.019	down
NTRR	0.045	0.110	flat
OGRMF	0.304	0.615	down
OSLH	0.006	0.015	up
OXIS	0.030	0.044	up
PHOT	0.019	0.065	down
PLPL	0.220	0.315	down
PMCB	0.140	0.215	flat
PNTV	n/a	n/a	down
PZOO	0.008	0.011	up
QEDN	0.095	0.007	down
REDG	0.000	0.003	flat
RFMK	0.000	0.002	down
RSSFF	0.069	0.266	flat
SING	0.008	0.016	flat
SKTO	0.000	0.004	down
SPRWF	0.141	0.230	down
SRNA	0.080	0.140	down
STEV	0.064	0.074	down
TAUG	0.054	0.079	down
THCZ	0.130	0.255	up
TRTC	0.090	0.215	down
TURV	0.410	0.775	flat
TWMJF	1.420	1.860	flat
UPOT	0.150	0.550	down
USEI	0.000	0.003	down
UTRM	0.000	0.000	down
VAPE	0.360	0.613	down
VAPR	0.030	0.090	down
VGPR	0.000	0.002	down
VHUB	0.019	0.040	flat
VPCO	0.594	0.970	down
VPOR	0.000	0.003	down
WDHR	0.000	0.002	down
WOGI	0.004	0.009	up
XTRM	0.003	0.005	down
XXII	0.820	1.160	flat

Posted in Bigger Picture

Saturday Review’s recording (for 5/9/15) …One more shot at new highs?

By Rod David | May 9, 2015 - 1:25 pm

This coming week begins with a Bank of England policy statement, the first since Thursday”s elections. Following it is a Eurozone meeting, the last ahead of Tuesday”s scheduled Greece debt payment of 750 million Euro.

All of which follows two wide-ranging weeks. All of which was contained within an ongoing three-month long range, but they were the fastest round trips within it, yet. This things getting ready to blow.

We discussed the scenarios — how to know what path the market is taking, and its implications. Then we reviewed stock chart analysis requests, listed below and in order.

Click here for an MP4 recording (or here for ilinc/Mitel).

BABA

SLF

CSCO

M

AAPL

BT

BNO / USO

DB

CELG

AMGN

ALXN

P

Gold, Oil

Posted in S&P, Saturday Review

30-minute countdown to this weekend”s

By Rod David | May 9, 2015 - 8:59 am

30-minute countdown to this weekend”s Saturday Review. We”ll discuss the market”s likely paths next week, and strategies for playing them. And we”ll review your stock chart analysis requests, including indicator and pattern insights that they offer. It begins at 9:30am ET, choose one of the following links to attend:

Win XP-friendly: http://anymeeting.com/974-844-174
[non-xp / ilinc: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkphyy]

Posted in S&P

Don”t mess with Mother Nature,

By Rod David | May 8, 2015 - 5:03 pm

Don”t mess with Mother Nature, or with Friday Factors, for that matter. Exiting the morning”s bias environment above the open”s high is already a sign of strength. Much more so when the open”s high was above prior highs. Much, much more so on Fridays. That doesn”t in itself point higher, but it an marginalize sellers.

That”s how Friday played out. Buyers became entrenched, but didn”t extend above the morning”s highs. The balance of the session ranged flat-to-lower — not unlikely Thursday afternoon, except that was the product of anxiousness and Friday was a product of absence.

[Here”s Friday”s post-market Wrap recording for more:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjvzbkc ]

This week”s price action was tremendous, as was the prior week. Gapping up on Monday and reversing down sharply through the week, until recovering. Both weeks. That volatility is not going to stop suddenly, although it might try. And a third temporary dip is very unlikely. So, either a durable decline or the long-awaited new highs are likely.

We”ll discuss the market”s likely paths at this weekend”s Saturday Review, beginning at 9:30am ET. And we”ll review your stock chart analysis requests, including indicator and pattern insights that they offer. Choose one of the following links to attend:

Win XP-friendly: http://anymeeting.com/974-844-174
[non-xp / ilinc: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkphyy]

Posted in S&P