Posts by Rod David
Morning bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2116.25 | 2112.00 |
| …would target | 2122.50 | 2118.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2108.50 | 2104.25 |
| …would target | 2102.75 | 2098.50 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Ahh, the weekend… I hope
Ahh, the weekend… I hope that everyone has plans to take advantage of the warming weather, rain and tornadoes. There, I just described this week”s price action in the Cannabis sector.
I hope to announce next week an exciting twist I”m adding to this service. I mentioned it briefly during the most recent Livestox. It combines my technical analysis lessons, applied to your stock chart analysis requests, the daily Livestox access, and Trade Alerts.
Meanwhile, following are the most recent stock comments in the Activity Feed, for your review and so the Marketfy search engine can see them.
Jo B — Rod please review the GOGO chart. At work. Will watch later
Ty Posted 2 days ago
fennecby — will there be a discussion of oil? in UWTI. Got knocked on the head pretty hard today off the highs
fennecby — BRDT seems to be experiencing some life after death. Any chance for this to actually go anywhere? (Company is still, theoretically, alive and kicking.) Posted 2 days ago
Brett-ster — Thanks Rod, Where do you see support on TRIP now that it”s broken 80.5? Posted 2 days ago
Rod-David — TRIP — Probably to 71.53-72.45, and potentially to 69.55, unless 78.80 is recovered Posted 2 days ago
Angceleste09 — CQH, Rod do you see any pattern worth noting here? Posted 2 days ago
fennecby — and apart from BRDT, what”s the earliest spot that would indicate another upleg on SGLB? 14.7 was your target before it formed what now seems like a symmetrical triangle. Posted 2 days ago
kit650kr — YO ROD : I love $20 moves…thanks for the guidance BOSS! Posted Yesterday
fennecby — and one more for this morning… what”s a good entry back into AGEN? Or does that double top prohibit retesting it and extending beyond? thanks X3. Posted Yesterday
Rod David — CQH — RSIs are deteriorating further on each higher price high. A dip to 24 might be able to stretch the rubber band enough to snap back up, so beware of a dip to 24 that doesn”t snap back up. Posted Yesterday
Rod David — SGLB — Nice volume pattern into the recent ~.12 high where an Ascending Triangle has been forming. Posted Yesterday
Rod David — AGEN — That”s not actually a double top. It”s worse. Consecutive overlapping deep bars of equal size tend to signal a sentiment extreme. Its eventual recovery would be very bullish. Meanwhile, its pullback does not get any benefit of the doubt for being only temporary. Posted Yesterday
Josey — Rod, What do you have for support on GILD? Would a 97. + – print be negative or how low for noise? TY. Posted Yesterday
kit650kr — OMG i love CELG Posted Yesterday
kit650kr — YO ROD! we closed just under $74 on CRM, we still good to hold on BOSS? Do you think we”ve finally bottomed on PLKI, I”d like to accumulate more if so. One more before I go help DAD: IDTI, is this stock staging a break out finally? Posted Yesterday
fennecby — thanks Rod. didn”t quite get the upshot on SGLB though – breakout on close over 12 targets 14.7?
And would still appreciate a look at BRDT. Posted Yesterday
kit650kr — look at BABA run Posted Yesterday
Rod David — GILD — Support is 100.60, and closing under it would significantly undermine the rally potential. Friday”s breakout wasn”t confirmed, so even the most bullish scenario could include a detour to 93. Posted Yesterday
Rod David — CRM — Needed another close above 74.40 to put into play 95. It”s not in-play without two consecutive closes above 74.40. Posted Yesterday
Rod David — PLKI — 55.20 is a viable candidate to serve as the pullback”s low. Closing any lower would suggest the next lower pullback candidate is in-play at 48.15, if not also 43.80 Posted Yesterday — “Edited”
Rod David — BRDT – Sorry, didn”t see that post earlier… High-volume surge would be credible for extending into the following day, but there”s otherwise no requirement to recover Posted Yesterday
Rod David — BABA — Closing under 86.25 would be attracted back down to yesterday”s close, if not also to new lows. Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — MCIG — Potential for extending to .133 above .104, so long as .088 holds as support Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — DATA — Strong resistance at 107.10-108.05… Closing any higher would next target 121.35-125.75 Posted 22 hours ago
fennecby — morning.
does NICE look over-extended to you, or will a new leg (break confirming on positive close today?) still offer meaningful returns?
And where is PRLB headed?
Thanks (for yesterday as well)! Posted 9 hours ago
Rod David — NICE — Attractive volume patterns into the breakout. If not confirmed today, then pullbacks need to hold 61 as support to maintain potential for resuming the breakout next week. Posted 8 hours ago
Rod David — PRLB — Closing above 73.60 before closing under 68.90 would likely retest the 79 area, if not also resume the rally. Posted 8 hours ago
Josey — Rod, how does SZYM look for long entry here. RSI seems bullish? Or not :) Posted 6 hours ago — “Edited”
Rod-David — MCIG — Closing today above .084 would keep alive for extending yesterday”s rally through its .105 high to .133. Recovery potential becomes diminished under .071 Posted 6 hours ago
Josey — One more, SGEN would this need two closes over 40.00 to buy? Posted 6 hours ago
Rod-David — SZYM – My preference at this stage of the pattern, having tested “lower prior highs” around 3.35 so many times for so long, that a blip -down fill the gap back to 3.20 and reverse back above 3.40 on volume to prove that sellers are done Posted 6 hours ago
Rod-David — SGEN — This leg”s breakout occurred at 35, much lower. Posted 6 hours ago
Rod-David — OXIS — Attractive volume pattern preceding today”s probe of fresh 2-week highs above the .030-.033 band of support. Closing back in the range would be disappointing for not having attracted new sponsorship. Otherwise, the rally is free to resum Posted 5 hours ago
proed — $KITE – presently have short entry @ $58 with a stop above what I believe to be downward sloping resistance of a falling wedge pattern from 3/20 (stop placed just above 61.8% retracement of recent down leg). Would appreciate your thoughts for targets and stop positioning. I have my limit buy set for $48.25. thanks Posted 5 hours ago
Josey — Next week time for SPXS ? Posted 4 hours ago
fennecby — thanks Rod.
ICLD ready for another leg? and target? Posted 4 hours ago
Rod David — proed, KITE — Is your Falling Wedge from 3/20-3/24? I don”t view the 3/20-4/2 action as an individual pattern, because its development overlaps the 6-week channel that preceded it. So, I”m not sure which recent downleg”s 61.8% retracement is being used to locate a stop… I”ve got resistance at 60.75-62 that needs to hold for this past week”s rally to have overcome downward momentum. Posted 3 hours ago
Rod David — ICLD — Closing decisively above 3.90 resistance on expanding volume would target 5.40. Posted 3 hours ago
fennecby — thanks. is there a pattern yet to KRNT? Posted 52 minutes ago
Rod-David — KRNT — getting there ;) Posted 25 minutes ago
Pre-close view… Friday Factor.
Still time for a squeeze?
The afternoon”s bias environment”s 2108.00 exit at 2:30 was under the noon hour”s low. Entering the noon hour even lower would have given sellers traction, but it was entered at 2110.00.
Fresh lows through the 3:10-3:20 timing window would be a proxy for the final hour”s entry. But the window is bouncing, not dropping.
Probing the bias environment”s 2112.00 high through 3:20 would at least trigger trending through the close. It has been attacked to within2 ticks, and would get a benefit of the doubt if probed without any interim retracement.
Meanwhile, there”s no requirement to trend any more so today. But trending down continues to be the least likely option.
There won”t be any hold-long (or hold-short) today. And don”t forget about tomorrow morning”s Saturday Review!
Daily Spot… Crude pullback done?
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The pullback from testing 1.1380 extended down into Friday”s open, testing 1.1225-1.280 support down to 1.1185. Sellers didn”t gain traction from gapping down and ranging exclusively in negative territory without also breaking under a prior low. A fresh low Monday would be bearish, but there is otherwise potential back up to 1.1315.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Bouncing Friday to attack 1194.50 was reversed to range choppily around 1187.00. Its break would be confirmed under 1182.70 as targeting new lows.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday”s blip-up above 16.50 in reaction to the Employment Situation report was reversed back down initially, but the balance of the session ranged around it without signaling a resolution either way.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Extending the recovery from Wednesday night”s test of 153-10 up to 156-03 had become a little extended into Friday”s Employment Situation report. Its knee-jerk reaction settled around 157-00 for the balance of the day. The bounce may extend to 157-16 without reversing the trend up, and while being vulnerable to retesting 154-02.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The pullback from testing 62.45 extended a little deeper Friday morning to 58.25. Much of a bullish “pivot reversal” setup formed — gapping up in a downtrend and closing positive with an interim intraday dip to fresh trend lows. Back above 60.15 would resume the rally to at least retest 62.45.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday”s shallow pullback was reversed by gapping up to fresh highs Friday, with potential for extending to 3.00, so long as 2.80 support isn”t revisited.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon May 8 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Sterling rallied on Friday”s election results, which created a favorable environment to greet the payrolls report. Monday morning”s unusually-timed BOE policy statement can influence price action, too.
*BOE policy statement
7:00 AM ET
Labor Market Conditions Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET