Posts by Rod David
New highs just a formality?
Don”t forget about Friday Factors.
The gap up had extended to within a tick of the thrice-renewed 2111.00 bias-up target. Back under 2107.00 would have triggered a reversal, but it was only touched before resuming the trend to fresh highs.
Probing fresh highs before 11:30 entrenched today”s momentum. The next higher target is 2114.75, although its test isn”t required. More important is that exiting the bias environment at fresh highs on Fridays is very difficult to reverse down.
Not impossible, just difficult.
Back under 2109.75 would start to signal a dip to 2104.25 in-play. It could be probed down to 2101.50. Regardless, it would likely be only temporary — and recovered entirely. The exception would to avoid recovering a prior low remained coming out of the bias environment at 2:30.
Please don”t underestimate the degree of difficulty in reversing down without. The bias environment”s exit is the one window that would be credible. Meanwhile, interim dips should be recovered.
Afternoon bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2119.25 | 2114.75 |
| …would target | 2124.75 | 2120.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2108.50 | 2104.25 |
| …would target | 2003.00 | 1998.50 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Can the post-open extensions still extend?
Extending the payrolls reaction doesn”t prevent a dip.
The pre-open surge to 2106.00 resistance had reacted down to 2101.50 support. Ranging narrowly into the open suddenly surged back up to 2106.00. Exceeding it targeted 2111.00, which was tested to within 1 tick.
That was all before 10:15. There has been no higher high since then. The bias environment must be productive for sellers to be marginalized.
It”s true that the bias parameters are deprecated being so far removed from their origin. It”s silly to think that price action 25-30 points lower is very influential. More so, 2111.00 is a thrice-renewed bias-up target. Just the word “thrice” is silly. Thrice. Heh-heh.
But the bias timing window nevertheless contains a common mentality among its participants. If they don”t produce a fresh high, then perhaps buyers can from a lower level.
So, probing above 2111.00 before 11:30 would help to marginalize sellers for the day. Otherwise, a dip to 2104.25 or 2101.50 can”t yet be discounted.
This morning”s Employment Situation report
This morning”s Employment Situation report was greeted at yesterday”s 2088 high. Still under 2090-2095, but perhaps more so for stopping pessimistically short of probing it. In any case, the reaction was very optimistic, surging to 2101.50 and then extended to test 2106.
Bias parameters aren”t very relevant when the open is indicated at or beyond what would be a doubly-renewed target. That”s 2101.50, and exceeding 2104.25 through 9:45 would be likely hold above 2101.50 and probe higher highs. Exiting the open under 2098.50 would be less likely to exceed 2101.50 before extending the pullback to test 2095.25.
Beware this bearish scenario: Sliding through the open to test 2093.50. That could bring out sellers through the morning. Otherwise, the door to new highs is open. Here”s the pre-market Tour recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/rkrbysj
P.S. Reminder: Saturday Review tomorrow!
The First Trade… Greeting payrolls AT resistance.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday”s open gapped down 4 points to test
2070.00. Weak, but the much greater weakness of probing 4 points under Wednesday”s 2061.25 low was isolated to overnight action. A test of the 2080.50 bias-up signal was put into play and attracted price higher. Extending higher through the noon hour to 2088.00 created room to absorb afternoon selling without damaging the chart, and 2080.50 held its touch before the close.
Overnight action”s new info…
The closing bounce tested
2085.00 trended higher overnight and eventually probed fresh highs at 2091.25. Its reaction down attacked 2085.00, twice. Each attack bounced back above 2088.00, which is being probed again now.
If, then…
Critical resistance at 2090.00-2095.25 is being tested overnight. Its range has been pivotal during the past four weeks. Two prior closes under it were resolved by gapping up above and extending to new highs. Tuesday”s close under it didn”t recover, as price action since then has been exclusively under 2090.00-2095.25. A lot of energy would be expended to probe above it, so there could be a very bearish consequence to not maintaining its recovery through a relevant timing window. Which assumes it will be probed, at all, since this morning”s Employment Situation report is being greeted from a position of weakness being below it.So, more than an initially negative knee-jerk reaction could find recent lows have chipped away at support. Either way, this being a Friday, the morning”s bias is likely to persist through the noon hour.
First Trade…
Preliminary levels are not available before an Employment Situation report. Look for their levels to be available in the chaRTroom after the report”s reaction.