Posts by Rod David
Here”s the chaRTroom”s overnight link,
Here”s the chaRTroom”s overnight link, which will be replaced in the morning (which will be available in the First Trade blog post):
http://anymeeting.com/123-388-098
Morning bias
.
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2091.25 | 2086.00 |
| …would target | 2096.50 | 2091.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2083.75 | 2078.50 |
| …would target | 2078.00 | 2072.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
No surprises Thursday afternoon. Rallying
No surprises Thursday afternoon. Rallying through the noon hour was intended to allow selling pressure without it damaging the recovery”s momentum. Selling pressure was a product of anxiousness ahead of the Employment Situation report.
Recovering from a dip under 2080.50 would have qualified as holding it as support. The afternoon”s dip only touched 2080.50, before probing above 2084 into the close. Closing above 2084 would have made the reaction to Friday”s report likely to be up, and to extend higher. Still overlapping it at the close still leaves potential for an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down.
And then up. Or, else.
Beyond just a knee-jerk reaction, morning weakness can still be bullish if the bias environment is exited back above 2080.50-2084.00. But morning weakness would not be optimal to a recovery, so the burden of proof would be on buyers.
Here”s the post-market Wrap recording for more details. I”ll send the new meeting room link later…
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/rkrbyxj
Pre-close view… No traction, no action?
Rally holds up, but on-hold — with one door open.
The bias environment”s relatively narrow ranging was exited within the noon hour”s range. And now the final hour was entered within the bias environment”s range. Nothing can be done today for buyers to gain traction for their efforts.
Trending up through the 3:10-3:20 timing window would still be credible for triggering a rally into the 3;37-3:52 position-squaring window. Closing back under the noon hour”s high would greet tomorrow”s Employment Situation report from a position of weakness, and require gapping up to avoid trending down.
Back under 2082.50 would target 2078.25, possibly lower — but not too much lower, or else there won”t be time to close back above 2080.50 and greet the Employment Situation report from a position of strength.
Daily Spot… Euro target and Bond target both reacting sharply.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday”s two attacks on the rally”s 1.1380 target were nevertheless probed overnight before reversing to gap down Thursday morning. Two consecutive closes under 1.1315 would start to deflate the bubble that formed during the past week. The bubble can otherwise further inflate to 1.1545.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
After holding the 1194.50 bounce limit, an aggressive drop overnight through 1187.00 to 1178.00 helped to compensate for Wednesday”s attacks on it that had held. New lows remain in-play so long as bounces now hold 1182.70.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The open”s gap down to 16.15 support reacted up to 16.50 resistance. Each held, with no new signal being generated.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Room for noise under the 154-02 target at 153-10 was tested overnight down to 153-10, and reacted up sharply before the open to gap up and extend intraday to 156-00.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The pullback from having met the 62.45 target extended overnight and Thursday morning down to 58.49. Back above 59.35 would stop the reversal down, which otherwise has no objective, just as there is no outstanding target above.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Although Thursday”s EIA report wasn”t being greeted from a position of weakness, the pattern was still more vulnerable to a corrective dip than to extending the rally. Its 2.63-2.67 pullback potential was hardly attacked by Thursday”s 2071.00 low.