Posts by Rod David
Can we play the anxiousness ahead of NFP?
Extended higher during the noon hour, but only so high.
Holding this morning”s 2070.00 bias-down signal”s test through 10:15 had put into play an offsetting test of the 2080.50 bias-up signal. It was met, held a retest, and reacted down a little. But really, its resistance was just waiting for the bias environment to lapse.
When the bias environment lapsing came into view 10-15 minutes earlier, the rally resumed. Or, at least, it extended.
Testing and retesting 2088.00 was reversed back under under this afternoon”s 2086.00 bias-up signal to avoid it triggering. Bouncing from 2083.00 has reacted back down from 2086.00.
We discussed this morning the goal a noon hour bounce, to create room for an afternoon pullback without it damaging the chart. The damage would begin by closing back under 2080.50. Back under 2082.50 would target 2079.00 intraday. It would be difficult to recover today from any lower.
Optimism can”t be too extreme ahead of tomorrow”s report. Trending above 2086.00 when the bias environment begins lapsing soon would be credible for extending higher through the next hour.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri May 8 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Here it comes, April”s payrolls report. And it”s pretty much in a vacuum since the post-open report has no track record for influencing price action.
**Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
A compilation of issues with
A compilation of issues with the latest test candidate have prompted us to move on. Here”s a link to a new room via Anymeeting, which would be our pick if not for limiting our connectivity:
http://anymeeting.com/198-611-800
Thanks for your feedback, and for your patience!
Afternoon bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2091.25 | 2086.00 |
| …would target | 2097.00 | 2092.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2080.50 | 2075.50 |
| …would target | 2075.00 | 2069.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Stopped digging?
Now, about actually getting out of the hole…
The market may have stopped digging itself a deeper hole by triggering no-bias. The 9:45 preliminary recovery above 2072.25-2073.00 made the 2070.00 bias-down signal unlikely to trigger at 10:15. And it did not.
More so, 2070.00 was tested post-open. So, having held a test of the bias-down signal, an offsetting test of the 2080.50 bias-up signal is in-play.
Recovering 2080.50 remains the critical difference between no longer digging a hole, and actually exiting it. Exiting the hole, by the way, before tomorrow”s Employment Situation report floods it with more sellers.
Timing is critical, since this afternoon”s price action could become paralyzed by anxiousness ahead of tomorrow”s report. So, extending well above 2080.50 through the noon hour would be helpful to allow room for sellers without damaging the chart.
Meanwhile, back under 2070.00 would start to signal the shovel”s are back at work.