Posts by Rod David
CORRECTION: The link to this
CORRECTION: The link to this morning”s pre-market Tour is:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/tybfywv
We started a bit late,
We started a bit late, but got it all in… The 2057 overnight low was retraced to 1 point above yesterday”s late bounce peak to 2076. That”s half the battle to reversing the trend up, and it”s not the most difficult half. This only places the open in a position of strength where it can then exceed 2072.25-2073.00 through the 9:45 preliminary, and/or hold above the 2070 bias-down signal at 10:15. Even that must extend above 2080.50 through a relevant window.
Details here in the pre-market Tour:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/tybfymv
The First Trade… More sellers, more knife catchers.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW CHARTROOM LINK
o Click here to help testa new conferencing candidate.
o Non-WinXP users may click here to continue using ilinc/Mitel.
Your critique is appreciated!
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
However Wednesday”s opening test of the prior afternoon”s 2090.75 high were to resolve, it would determine whether Tuesday afternoon”s sellers would be trapped. They had gained traction, and invalidating them would have triggered a squeeze. But the open”s blip-up pierced the 2092.75-2093.50 preliminary resistance and quickly reversed down sharply — plunging, actually, to 2070.50 which was the morning”s low. Bouncing to 2083.75 failed to invalidate a lower target, which was met during the afternoon bias environment”s slide to 2061.25. The last 60-90 minutes recovered the morning”s low up to 2075.00.
Overnight action”s new info…
Choppy sideways ranging touched as high as 2077.50 after midnight. A 10-point drop to 2067.50 into Europe”s opens was consolidated, but ultimately resolved down another 10 points to 2057.00. Similar to yesterday, that has bounced to test the overnight drop”s initial low up to 2070.00.
If, then…
Did sellers overplay their hand overnight? Yesterday”s decline didn”t gain traction (because only its 2:30 bias environment exit was bearish). That”s not necessarily bullish, and anyway, the low”s buyers were rewarded fully already — the late bounce that completed a 61.8% retracement of the mid-day downleg. The overnight slide”s threat to resume the decline seems to have lacked sponsorship, since it has bounced 13 points, and well back above yesterday”s lows. Nevertheless, the bounce is just touching what is now resistance at this morning”s 2070.00 bias-down signal. Not recovering it through the open can be as bearish as yesterday”s failed opening test of its bias-up signal”s resistance.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2072.25-2073.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2070.00 bias-down signal 30 minutes later at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2066.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Afternoon bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2086.50 | 2080.50 |
| …would target | 2092.75 | 2087.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2075.75 | 2070.00 |
| …would target | 2070.50 | 2064.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
[SCROLL DOWN FOR RECORDING AND
[SCROLL DOWN FOR RECORDING AND LOGIN LINKS]
Wednesday afternoon”s bias environment was exited at 2066. This is the lower-end of a range that was attacked last Thursday before Friday”s May Day rally. Its the lower-end of a range that was tested in mid-April. There”s some other congestion in the area, but the basic point is that 2066 is pretty significant support. And pretty well-worn.
If this 2066 area intends to prevent a larger downleg, then a rally effort must be obvious during Thursday morning”s bias environment. This area is not a position of strength to be greeting Friday”s payrolls report, let alone from lower.
That mid-April session which had held a test of 2066, had begun by gapping down under 2090-2095 from above it. Despite spending the entire session exclusively under 2090-2095, the following session gapped up above it and extended to new highs. Wednesday was the first session since then to be spent exclusively under 2090-2095. Just closing above it Thursday should be enough to marginalize sellers.
NEW CHARTROOM LINK
Please help me test this new conferencing candidate. We”ll be using it Thu-Fri. Let me know its audio quality and other thoughts.
http://chaRTroom.enterthemeeting.com
If that isn”t stable overnight, use this backup link, and I”ll have an xp-friendly solution before the open.
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh
MARKET WRAP
Wednesday”s post-market Wrap recording is here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/tybfymv