Posts by Rod David
The First Trade… Optimism resurfacing.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
This morning”s chaRTroom links:
NOT xp-friendly (ilinc/Mitel)
XP-Friendly (Anymeeting)
— Last night”s candidate test is done —
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Tuesday”s open was on its way to recovering from an overnight dip. A Grexit headline retraced the recovery attempt from 2109.25 back down through the 2101.25 pre-open low, falling to fresh lows at the morning”s 2098.00 bias-down target. The morning broke lower to 2090.00, and a noon hour bounce to almost 2097.00 was reversed to 2081.25. Sellers gained traction for their efforts, exiting the bias environment under the noon hour”s low, and entering the final hour lower.
Overnight action”s new info…
Tuesday afternoon”s drop was partially recovered to 2092.50 before another dip returned to Tuesday afternoon”s 2081.50 low. The dip was eventually recovered entirely back up to 2092.50, and its reaction is now trying to resume the recovery.
If, then…
There”s no “unfinished business below” attracting price lower. But today”s open might make one, a gap back down to yesterday”s ~2083.50 close. Its near-term attraction could become irrelevant if the open were to extend above yesterday afternoon”s 2090.75 high. That could form a bullish “session-long rally” setup. Gapping up without extending would not complete the setup, which could be as bearish as the completed setup would have been bullish.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2090.75 — and preferably also above 2092.75 — would be likely also to trigger the 2089.75 bias-up signal 30 minutes later at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2085.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
We”re testing “GlobalMeet” for the
We”re testing “GlobalMeet” for the next couple of days (assuming it doesn”t crash repeatedly like yesterday”s test candidate). It seems relatively simply, and clean.
https://gmtrial.globalmeet.com/chaRTroom
When prompted to choose phone or computer audio, choose audio.
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Comment on the Activity Feed if you encounter any difficulty.
Here”s the ilinc/Mitel app if there”s any difficulty:
I”ll launch it this evening between 7-8pm ET.
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh
Morning bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2095.75 | 2089.75 |
| …would target | 2100.00 | 2094.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2086.50 | 2080.50 |
| …would target | 2081.50 | 2075.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Tuesday”s sellers gained traction. The
Tuesday”s sellers gained traction. The bias environment was exited under the noon hour”s low, and the final hour was entered lower still. Sellers will be rewarded by having control of Wednesday morning. Typically that means trending down, whether a little or a lot, but not just briefly probing under Tuesday”s lows.
Unless… Last Thursday”s sellers gained traction, too. But they weren”t rewarded. Instead, Friday”s open gapped up above the prior afternoon bias environment”s high. Friday trended up throughout.
Interestingly, the same scenario is being encountered in the same area. Last Friday, the relevant level was 2090. Wednesday, it is 2090.75 — gapping up or immediately recovering it would invalidate Tuesday”s sellers. It could also form a “session-long rally” setup.
There”s no outstanding target below. Oversold RSIs were neutralized. And a second positive divergence was in position to trigger a dramatic decline, but failed. Sellers gained traction Tuesday, but seem shy about exploiting it. The thing is, they can be shy, since the traction is theirs to exploit. So, by the same token, shy sellers made it easier for buyers to negate them… Look out below if buyers are even shyer.
Here”s the link to Tuesday”s post-market Wrap:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/xmjmshz
[I”ll post the chaRTroom links for tonight shortly…]
Pre-close view… Is it still a rubber band?
Stretching back down to bounce up has gotten close to breaking.
The 2084.50 bias-down target was met after the bias environment began lapsing, on the way down to 2081.50. It quickly reacted back up to 2084.50, and then down to 2081.50 again.
Simultaneously oversold RSIs diverged positively on the retest. That”s potentially bullish, at least for a bounce back toward the bias environment”s 2090.75 high. Back above the positive divergence”s 2084.50 interim high would be a credible start. It was just pierced, but by only an errant tick.
Not bouncing higher, and instead probing a fresh low first, could be very bearish. Dramatically lower before the close, targeting the 2060.00 area.
The last positive divergence at 2086.00 probed lower without first probing above its interim high. Two such consecutive patterns would suggest much bigger selling pressure coming down the pipeline.