Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot… 30-year meets its first target.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday had been the second consecutive pullback session, following Thursday”s confirmed breakout. Tuesday was required to rally, which it did, but not until a deeper dip overnight that was recovered entirely into Tuesday”s open. Closing above 1.1230 would target 1.1315 and 1.1380.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday”s closing test of 1187.00 resistance was extended overnight to probe above 1194.50 to 1198.00-1200.00 Tuesday. Closing back under 1194.50 would reinstate the decline targeting fresh lows.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday”s shallow bounce held 16.65 resistance to avoid suggesting the recovery is yet extending higher. Another dip to 16.50 support is likely, if not lower to retest 16.15.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Testing the 156-08 target overnight and reacting up into Thursday”s open would have been a credible low, except for the setup in-play that still requires at least a third lower close. Fresh lows tested 155-12, with 154-02 in-play so long as 156-08 isn”t recovered.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh highs overnight probed fresh highs testing 61.00, targeting 61.75 and potentially 62.45. Meanwhile, the minimum requirement for at least one more higher close has been fulfilled.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down only slightly Tuesday and ranging slightly lower through the day is “ineffectual pessimism.” Rallying immediately Wednesday would be credible for extending higher intraday.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed May 5 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday”s ADP report is controversial, but it gives us a glimpse of the market sentiment in preparation for Friday”s payrolls number. The rest of the day is dominated by Fed speakers, including Yellen.
*Narayan Kocherlakota Speaks — dove
TUE 8:00 PM ET
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET
Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index
8:30 AM ET
Treasury Refunding Announcement
8:30 AM ET
**Janet Yellen Speaks — dove
9:15 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*Esther George Speaks — hawk
1:15 PM ET
*Dennis Lockhart Speaks — dove
1:30 PM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET
A drachma here, a drachma there, pretty soon you’re talking about real money.
Will all these Grexit headlines add up, too?
The ongoing story of Greece”s repayment struggles is not a new story. Each headline may be news, but it”s not really new. None of which prevents any headline from impacting price. It”s just that the market has repeatedly recovered.
So, here we are again, a perfectly good recovery effort having been derailed by news from Greece that an upcoming loan payment is questionable. News, but not new.
The pre-open test of 2101.50 support had bounced through the open to attack 2109.50. An offsetting test of the bias-up signal was a brass ring away.
The headline drove price down to this morning”s 2098.00 bias-down target. Its retest reacted up to touch the 2103.50 bias-up signal. Recovering it by 10:30 would have been able to trend higher this morning, but it held. And fresh lows tested 2090.00 support.
Now the noon hour has been entered back above a relevant resistance at 2093.50 to suggest that sellers are done. Entering the noon hour above 2095.25 would have suggested buyers regained control, but it”s being probed only now. So, that will be left to triggering the 2098.50 bias-up signal.
Greeting more Grexit headlines today would likely have a similar effect if greeted from weakness. And that”s an issue if 2103.50 hasn”t yet recovered. Meanwhile, back under 2093.50 would start to signal another downdraft underway. And possibly also another Grexit headline coming.
Afternoon bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2104.75 | 2098.50 |
| …would target | 2109.50 | 2103.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2096.00 | 2090.00 |
| …would target | 2090.75 | 2084.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… fallen and won’t get up.
Bias-down parameters met.
The pre-open dip had extended down to 2101.50. It was recovered through the open up to 2109.25. Its consolidation didn”t resume the recovery, and broke lower to 2097.25.
That tested the 2098.00 bias-down target. Twice. Both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs diverged positively on the retest. That produced a reaction up to the 2103.50 bias-down signal.
So, bias-down triggered, but its target has been met and held. Despite being a bias-down environment, usually the bias-down targets will continue holding through 11:30 if they held through 10:15. But this is still a bias-down environment.
Back under 2099.00 (being tested now) would start to signal fresh lows in play, targeting 2095.25. It”s premature to start probing above 2103.50, but probing it when the bias environment is within view of lapsing would be bullish.