Posts by Rod David
Afternoon bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2121.00 | 2114.75 |
| …would target | 2127.00 | 2120.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2110.50 | 2104.25 |
| …would target | 2104.25 | 2098.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Here they come.
Gap up extends, entrenching new highs.
The open”s momentary blip-down touched 2105.50 and reacted up sharply to probe the overnight high. This morning”s 2109.50 bias-up target was exceeded above 2111.00 through 9:45. That made the bias-up target likely to be exceeded through 10:15, which would renew the bias-up signal.
At 10:15, the 2114.75 renewed bias-up target was being tested already. That has since held, while price ranges flat-to-lower. Bias-up was not doubly renewed.
Regardless of this morning”s resolution, new highs are now likely. This morning”s high touched pivotal highs, i.e. the highs prior to last Monday”s actual high. Recovering that much all but requires eventually probing a fresh high.
Back above 2114.75 would start to signal the rally has resumed, next targeting a retest of last Monday”s 2119.75 high by at least 1 point. Back under 2112.25 would start to signal a deeper dip underway, targeting a test of 2109.50.
The overnight rally probed a
The overnight rally probed a little higher momentarily, to within 3 ticks of this morning”s 2109.50 bias-up target. Holding it or exceeding it could make almost all the difference for this morning”s direction. Not all the difference, “almost” all the difference. The point is that if the bias-up isn”t renewed, then we”ll still monitor for whether the morning simply backs-and-fills down to the 2103 bias-up signal, or if the bias-up signal”s support is probed in time to point sharply lower. Here”s the pre-market Tour recording for details:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/kfpyxhp
The First Trade… Extending through the weekend.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Enter the
chaRTroom here (NOT xp-friendly)
One more day of
Anymeeting CLICK HERE
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Gapping up Friday above Thursday afternoon”s 2090.00 high essentially marginalized sellers for the day. Two tests of the 2095.25 renewed bias-up target were reacted down to test and retest 2088.00. But the rally resumed into the afternoon, extending to 2102.50. Only one timing window did not probe above its prior timing window, like a session-long decline.
Overnight action”s new info…
Looking at the market”s chart, you might think Greek headlines are promising, or that there aren”t any at all. Or the same for China. Price action was stoic, ranging narrowly between 2099.00-2102.00. Actually, their news isn”t by any means disastrous, but definitely on the negative side. Apparently, price just wanted to probe higher.A blip-down to 2098.00 at Europe”s opens was soon reversed through the range”s upper-end, to fresh highs now attacking 2108.00.
If, then…
2108.00 is retesting Wednesday”s highs. That was the inside day, which had gapped down into Tuesday morning”s range, which was that steep, deep temporary sell-off. Recovering to Wednesday”s highs is certainly not bearish, but its price still represents near-term resistance. A lot of energy is being expended just to test it. Meanwhile, gapping up is by definition extreme sentiment, and greeting the new week with extreme sentiment is often a sentiment extreme (recall last Monday”s gap up). This morning”s bias-up target is still a couple of points higher, which is near enough to contribute to resistance. Resistance may yet hold and reverse the morning”s momentum back down. But extending higher just a little more could make the difference for extending much higher.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2105.75 would be likely also to trigger the 2103.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2111.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2109.50 bias-up target, renewing the bias-up signal. Exiting the open back under 2099.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2103.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.
Globex is open, and uneventful
Globex is open, and uneventful so far. You can watch at either of these links:
Mitel/ilinc: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh
XP-friendly: http://anymeeting.com/201-437-837