Posts by Rod David

Was Friday a “session-long rally?” This comparison could be important, because the setup tends to extend the next morning. Friday”s open gapped above the prior afternoon”s high, and each timing window but one probed above its prior window”s high. The only distinction, which isn”t minor, was that Thursday”s close had not trended down.

Friday”s rally did not expend all available effort. It was strong, but it could have been stronger, having potential to 2109.50-2111.00. It ended at its high while retesting its 2101.50 target, but the last 90 minutes did not actually trend up. The bias environment”s exit was bullish, but no other window gained traction.

Between the setup”s potential resolution and the muted optimism — combined with the week”s substantial decline — not exploiting these factors to extend higher Monday could mean that the downleg had only just begun.Otherwise, potential to new highs remains intact.

We”ll discuss the bigger picture and game out strategy for the Globex open and next week, all at this weekend”s Saturday Review. I”ll send it link (for XP users, too) in the morning. Meanwhile, here”s Friday”s post-close Wrap recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/fbfkhcb

Yesterday afternoon”s high held multiple tests as support.

Gapping up to and through yesterday afternoon”s 2090.00 high — which was also this morning”s bias-up target — robbed sellers of a lot of traction. 

They could have regained it by not exceeding 2090.00 through 10:15, or after testing the 2095.25 renewed bias-up target, or after retesting 2095.25. Each of those reactions down was deeper and deeper. Each was on the same plane. And each was recovered to a higher high.

This latest recovery took awhile. But as I have been describing in the chaRTroom, hovering at resistance though the noon hour would all but marginalize sellers.

Friday morning bias signals tend to persist through the noon hour because that”s when the last of big money is done. That”s not equivalent to trending. And this morning”s big money did not produce trending. Exiting the noon hour allowed the session”s character to change. 

A surge just sliced through this afternoon”s 2095.25 bias-up signal to 2099.75. This is “no-bias” trending, and it is required at some point to revisit 2095.25, if not also the 2094.25 1:20 print. No-bias trending often does retrace the same day. So, extending higher depends greatly on holding above 2098.00, and extending above 2101.50.

When no-bias trending isn”t retraced the same day, it”s usually because much more no-bias trending lies ahead. This afternoon”s rally still targets 2101.50, and potentially 2109.50-2111.00.