Posts by Rod David
Morning bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2110.25 | 2104.25 |
| …would target | 2115.50 | 2109.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2099.50 | 2093.50 |
| …would target | 2092.50 | 2086.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
The market is in conflict,
The market is in conflict, and the title holder had better fight back soon, or else he”ll lose his belt. Wednesday”s sellers beat up on buyers again, with another intraday probe under 2090-2095.25. It held again as support, without trending up overly-optimistically.
Two consecutive tests of 2090-2095.25 isn”t as problematic as there having been only a single interim upleg into Tuesday”s close. An opportunity to rally Wednesday afternoon wasn”t exploited. But, like Tuesday”s pattern, the rally can remedy the problem by gapping up and running at Thursday”s open.
And like Tuesday”s pattern, the alternative is another corrective dip. Its potential continues to be a retest of Tuesday”s 2088.25 low, which remains vulnerable to its bottom dropping out. Here”s more detail in the post-market Wrap:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkwzpt
I still like the potential
I still like the potential for probing new highs before a serious downleg begins in the market. But I”m starting to add some shorts.
AAPL, sell short @ 124.50 — Potential to fresh highs at 140 seems to be overcome by at least a temporary detour targeting 116.50 or 111.00. Without this downdraft, I”ll still look to sell my 140 target area.
GPRO — sell short @ 49.75 — Reacting up sharply too earnings, and might extend if confirmed by a second consecutive higher close. But reacting down immediately Thursday would re-open the door to new lows.
NFLX — sell short @ 587.50 (stop 595.00) — Consolidating its recent huge reaction up on earnings, and hovering under my outstanding target area. Meanwhile, Amazon Prime and HBO are getting higher profiles for aiming at Netflix”s market share, making at least a correction likely.
Pre-close view… Unrelieved non-rally.
FOMC statement”s time in the spotlight hasn”t been terribly bullish.
A bounce to 2102.00 greeted the FOMC policy statement. That was a 61.8% retracement of the last intraday downleg, including its maximum room for noise.
The knee-jerk reaction down to 2095.25 was retraced to 2103.50. Another plunge down precisely to 2095.25 was again retraced precisely to 2095.25. Did I mention precisely?
Deja vu? Untrustworthy base. Despite its next reaction triggering buy signals that extended another 7-1/2 points, the base wasn”t likely to produce a durable rally leg. In fact, a reaction down just touched 2097.25.
A durable recovery is still likely, but not by that first rally leg. Back above 2101.50 (being pierced momentarily now) would allow the shallower 2097.25 pullback to serve by proxy for the deeper 2093.50. Back above 2104.25-2015.00 could trigger a massive short-squeeze.
Daily Spot… Bond and Euro hit extremes
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday”s gap up spiked through 1.1020 and eventually extended to 1.1195. Just recovering above 1.1020 would have suggested the recent bounce may be evolving into a much more substantial rally. But exploding higher does risk being exhaustive, and closing back under 1.1160 would instead suggest a much bigger top was now forming.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday”s surge to 1213.00 resistance reacted back down under 1208.50 and 1205.00 overnight. Wednesday”s opening gap back up to Tuesday”s close was filled, and the reversal down retested 1205.00, whose break Thursday would confirm the dip to at least 1194.50 underway.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
[Rolling coverage forward to Jul, trading at a nickel premium to May] Testing of 16.65 resistance reacted down to test 16.50, whose break would still target 16.15.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday”s signal under 162-00 that the corrective bounce had ended and the decline had resumed was rewarded almost immediately by extending down Wednesday morning to 158-22. The outstanding 159-14/159-26 objective was probed, and two consecutive loses under it would signal a much deeper decline underway.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Ranging narrowly persisted Wednesday morning between 56.60-57.70 until a tighter EIA report triggered a surge to fresh highs at the 59.31. Target. Now 58.65 must hold as support to maintain the rally”s momentum to 61.75-62.25.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The firming persisted Wednesday, all the way up to 2.60 resistance, despite never having filled the gap back down to Monday”s 2.49 gap. Closing above 2.60 would still put into play at least 2.80, but back under 2.55 would target the low”s retest.