Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Apr 30 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Claims hasn”t influenced price action for awhile, and the Fed speaker”s comments probably won”t be surprising one day following the FOMC meeting. But the Chicago PMI number is very reliable for influencing price action — watch for market movement several minutes earlier as its institutional subscribers react to any surprise.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
Employment Cost Index
8:30 AM ET
Daniel Tarullo Speaks — dove
8:30 AM ET
*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Anxiousness, indeed.
Pre-FOMC action still probing lows.
Opening at this morning”s 2098.00 bias-down target produced a quick 9-point bounce. Probing back under 2098.00 by 2 points produced an 8-point bounce up to this morning”s 2104.25 bias-down signal.
Another dip to 2098.00 held through the bias environment”s exit. That didn”t prevent dropping through it to 2090.50. It”s now reacting back up to attack 2095.25.
One thing about this is potentially bullish, while two things about it are already bearish. Bullish is the timing of probing under relevant levels (2098.00) to test relevant support (2090.00-2095.25, 2093.50). This morning”s 2098.00 bias-down target is support, and its bounces have failed, but the timing of probes under it suggests its sponsorship is weak-handed.
Meanwhile, bearish is that 2090.00-2095.25 is being retested after having rejected a test just one day earlier. Bearish is coming so close to yesterday”s 2088.25 low whose oversold RSIs require a retest, probably down to 2086.50.
Bearish can”t become bullish, but its bearishness can be delayed by sellers overplaying their hand. Already testing 2086.50 before the 2:00 ET FOMC policy statement, or holding its test on a knee-jerk reaction to the news, could find selling pressure fully expended. Twice.
But that keeps the door open to the vulnerability we discussed yesterday about this morning”s likely pullback. That without attracting strong-handed sponsorship, the market might discover the prior two weeks of distribution left no one to defend this range.
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2111.75 | 2105.75 |
| …would target | 2117.00 | 2111.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2104.00 | 2098.00 |
| …would target | 2099.50 | 2093.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Backed-and-filled.
Pullback target holding. Again.
The pre-open dive to 2095.25 was recovered enough to open at 2098.00, and not a tick lower. That”s this morning”s bias-down target, and post-open action surged from there to probe the 2104.25 bias-down signal”s resistance up to 2107.00.
Resistance held, and 2098.00 was retested. It was still being tested at 10:15 to trigger no-bias, target met. Probing under it by a couple of points came too late to renew the bias-down.
Usually, the target holds after failing to exploit the opportunity to renew the bias signal. In fact, now a reaction up has touched 2102.50. There”s room up to the 2104.25 bias-down signal, and room for noise above it to 2105.00.
And higher. The bias environment can probe freely above the bias-down signal since its target has been met already.
But this is still a bias-down environment. And there is room for noise under the bias-down target to 2093.50. Dipping that deeply during the open would have all but ensured also testing yesterday”s 2088.25 low. Exiting the bias environment at 11:30 under 2098.00 still could extend down, anyway — especially if also under 2093.50.
My pullback target is now
My pullback target is now being tested by the extended reaction to this morning”s GDP miss. Without gapping up through 2114.75, doing by proxy what yesterday afternoon failed to do, the consequence for even the most bullish scenario was to test 2098. That”s this morning”s bias-down target, and it”s being probed down to 2095.25.
The 2090.00-2095.25 range just held a test yesterday. Retesting it this morning would not be bullish. But recovering from it immediately could be very bullish. Details were discussed during the pre-market Tour here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/cxwszmw