Posts by Rod David
Monday afternoon”s 2104.25 bias-down target
Monday afternoon”s 2104.25 bias-down target wasn”t met by 1:20, let alone held, not like the morning”s 2119.75 bias-up target had already held by 10:15. That didn”t required trending lower, but it made trending lower easier. And the next lower targets down to 2101 were met.
That”s where RSIs finally diverged positively, on 2101”s retest. I calculated bounce potential to 2104.25-2105.00 before 2101”s retest, and would have gladly sold it overnight for a reaction down under Monday”s 2101 lows. But it was tested at Monday”s close.
Never mind that, bouncing to 2104.25-2105.00 might still push back under 2101. And that”s despite the favorable reaction to AAPL”s post-close earnings. AAPL has gained up to $2-1/2, but 2104.25-2105.00 is still being overlapped.
I”m still bullish for another probe of fresh highs, no matter how brief, but not from very much lower. Especially if Techs can put in a “relief rally” Tuesday. A Biotech rally would be helpful, too, and not unlikely — their weakness Monday was likely a big function of being shorted as a hedge ahead of AAPL”s earnings. A hedge that doesn”t seem necessary (not until AAPL reaches 140, but don”t tell anyone).
The post-market Wrap is below. But, first, my thanks to all who encountered difficulty with the meeting room software update problem. And my thanks to all who tried one of the 5-6 candidates for its replacement — your observations are very helpful.
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/cxwsswv
Pre-close view… Choppy seas into AAPL earnings.
Afternoon lows didn”t extend.
The slide to 2104.25 had reacted up to 2109.00. That range has persisted for 90 minutes. There remains room down to 2103.00 without yet signaling anything more substantial, although that”s more precarious now after the bias environment has lapsed.
Any durable trending should be underway through the 3:10-3:20 timing window. And that”s because two other timing windows already failed to extend down — the 2:30 bias environment exit and the 3:00 final hour entry.
It”s too late to trigger short-squeeze. But back above 2107.50-2109.00 would still target the 2114.00 area. Meanwhile, still ranging around Friday morning”s 2106.00 low after 3:10-3:20 would make any later trending weak-handed and temporary.
Daily Spot… About Gold’s about-face.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Higher highs Monday kept alive potential for extending the bounce to attack 1.1100, so long as 1.0845-1.0855 holds as support.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday”s test of the 1170.00-1174.00 target to within a dime proved enough for a bounce Sunday night that retraced 61.8% of the drop from Thursday”s high. But that was nothing. Monday”s opening gap up consolidated briefly around 1185.00, and then surged sharply to eventually probe attack 1207.00. That”s hardly a stable base to launch a recovery, so at least a dip back to 1194.50 is likely.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The 4-day sequence of unconfirmed breakouts was followed by Monday”s gap up to 15.85 that extended sharply higher post-open to 16.45. That”s the lower-end of resistance up to 16.60, which will be difficult to recover without first testing 16.10 as support.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday”s 61.8% retracement of the last downleg proved enough for renewed dipping Monday to test 162-00 support. But no lower, as its test at Monay”s open was recovered to within 10 ticks of the 163-18 bounce limit.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Narrow sideways ranging neither pierced the 57.70 (not 56.70) buy signal. It would not be able to tolerate any hesitation the following day, so its break had better be sure about itself. The buy signal”s potential remains alive so long as the 56.58 (not 55.58) pullback limit continues holding as support — which it did, throughout Monday”s lows.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down into the front-month roll (from May to Jun) doesn”t allow a buy signal to form, let alone to trigger, before another session retests Monday”s 2.49 opening print. But doing so after closing above 2.51 could find a very quick upleg underway to 2.73, 2.80 and 2.90.
That which doesn’t reverse the trend refuels it.
Corrective dip ahead of two high-profile events.
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The 2119.75 morning bias-up target”s retest held. It wasn”t even pierced. And its reaction down slid under the 2116.00 area to reverse momentum down.
That could have ended in the 2111.00 area. And it did, MOMENTARILY, attacking it to within 3 ticks before bouncing. But the 2116.00 area held as resistance, and launched another downleg into the noon hour.
And through it. This afternoon”s 2110.00 bias-down target was touched just after 1:20 had signaled bias-down.
Its reaction up to 2109.00 doesn”t mean the bottom is in. Back under 2106.25 would target 2103.00. Exiting the bias environment any lower would suggest a much bigger downleg is underway into Wednesday morning ahead of that afternoon”s FOMC policy statement.
Meanwhile, the alternative to extending down under 2103.00 would be to rally — to new highs.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Apr 28 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Tuesday morning”s first three econ reports offer snapshots of consumer health, as if Monday”s post-close Apple earnings would have told us already everything we need to know.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET