Posts by Rod David
Afternoon bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2121.75 | 2115.50 |
| …would target | 2126.75 | 2120.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2116.00 | 2110.00 |
| …would target | 2110.50 | 2104.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWNT | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Target met, and held, but not rejected
Chipping away at the bias-up target”s resistance?
The pre-open recovery extended to within 3 ticks of the 2119.75 bias-up target, within 5 minutes of the open. Its attraction would be considered neutralized if not fulfilled this morning, regardless of being put into play.
And almost avoided being put into play. The open”s reaction down slid immediately to touch the 2113.75 bias-up signal as support.
A 2-1/2 point bounce was retraced entirely, while 1-minute RSI diverged positively. Bias-up triggered at the 10:15 bias timing window, that wasn”t an issue. But the bias-up target had been touched at the high.
So, this is a bias-up environment, whose target has been met.
Usually this setup avoids extending higher this morning. That opens the door to reversing down, which is a risk this afternoon if the market were to become paralyzed by anxiousness ahead of AAPL”s post-close earnings.
But the rally”s momentum remains intact above the 2117.00 area. Holding it as support would allow the rally to extend. Otherwise, at least backing-and-filling down to the 2114.00 area becomes likely, and vulnerable to reversing into negative territory.
The overnight recovery has held
The overnight recovery has held up, and is now extending to within 3 ticks of the 2119.75 bias-up target. This territory for extreme sentiment is risking that it might be a sentiment extreme. Watch the preliminary levels described in the First Trade blog post… Meanwhile, the XP chaRTroom alternative is working well. Here”s the pre-market Tour recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/jrtccrm
Good morning! Friday”s hesitation at
Good morning!
Friday”s hesitation at extending to higher highs seems to have been only temporary. Pre-open action is already probing higher. It”s not yet substantial, nor is it consistent. And it hasn”t been maintained through the close. But the new week is being greeted optimistically, and not with such extreme sentiment as to suggest it might be a sentiment extreme.
I”ll be adding a number of individual stock ideas today, and would like to host an afternoon Livestox. Look for posts detailing parameters on both topics. Meanwhile, here”s the most recent Activity Feed posts (104 quantity) in case you missed them, and so they can be indexed by Marketfy”s search engine…
fennecby — Morning Rod. 2 questions for today:
1. Where (if at all) would you buy CAMT after this recent surge on big volume, and with what target in mind? [$4 is not that far away, so I”m not quite sure it”s worth the risk]
2. What”s your outlook on the German DAX?
tia! Posted 2 days ago
Rod-David — CAMT — This leg”s upside potential is to 3.75 and 3.95, which is relatively nearby. A dip to 3.45 might allow a slingshot reaction up. Posted 2 days ago
Rod-David — DAX — Sorry, no outlook on international indexes here Posted 2 days ago
fennecby — thanks Rod. Posted 2 days ago
Brett-ster — Rod, I”m trying to decide whether to sell or hold some WOGI that I scored at .005 the other day. I”ve already sold half at .0064. What”s the pattern look like? Posted 2 days ago
casjf — SCTY – Today breaking through that $58 resistance you talked about a couple of weeks ago. What is the next target? Posted 2 days ago
Josey — Good morning Rod and all other eye”s. What would be support on BLCM or a good stop. Thank You! Posted 2 days ago — “Edited”
Josey — SIVB looking good, just no big volume yet. Earning are tomorrow. Posted 2 days ago — “Edited”
Rod David — WOGI — This is a pretty big decision point for the stock. Having bounced since the 2-month old lows, there is only one completed higher high, so it”s premature to say the trend has reversed up. It may not reverse up. But a fresh high close above .01 would signal the trend is reversing up, making .0175 likely. Posted 2 days ago
Rod David — SCTY — targeting 62.90, and then above 66.70 would target the 72.85 area. Posted 2 days ago
Rod David — BLCM — 23.75-24.25 support. More important at this stage of the pattern is not to delay extending above 27.00-27.50 on sharply expanding volume. Posted 2 days ago
Rod David — SIVB — Agreed, volume is a big concern, so not necessarily greeting earnings from a position of strength that would at least suggest buying an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down. Posted 2 days ago
fennecby — GLUU breaking out today. What”s in store? Posted 2 days ago
Rod-David — GLUU — If confirmed, then 6.35 and potentially 6.85 are in-play Posted 2 days ago — “Edited”
fennecby — thanks. Posted 2 days ago
Miss Kitty — I tried the link and it doesn”t seem to work with an Android device. Android had a 76.6% share of the smartphone market in 4Q14. Posted 2 days ago — “Edited”
Rod-David — Apparently, the room supports Android tablets but not Android phones, sorry. Posted 2 days ago
fennecby — and CRNT, if its breakout is confirmed, targets where? Posted 2 days ago
Rod-David — CRNT — at least 1.60-1.70 Posted 2 days ago
fennecby — thanks and good night. Posted 2 days ago
casjf — Nope: tried it on an iPad running Safari & it didn”t work. Got the message that “the OS may not be supported” and “JavaScript must be enabled”. No advice, of course, about how to enable JavaScript on an iPad… Plus I wouldn”t want to enable it only to find out it still doesn”t work. I”ll continue using my Windows PC with IE for LiveStox. As far as I can tell, Marketfy seems to code for Android tablets and hopes everything else will work. Posted 2 days ago
fennecby — Morning Rod.
If there”s an adverse reaction to AGEN”s report this morning, what level needs to hold to keep it running? Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — AGEN — 5.60 Posted Yesterday
Josey — GPRE Noticed a pattern change last 3 weeks from the previous months. Does that mean anything. Accumulation last 3 weeks? Posted Yesterday
Josey — Could you do parameters for INVN. I”m long. Posted Yesterday
JustJulie — cannot be there, but if possible, in this order, if u have time: RAD, ESPR, FOLD
Anything about the charts that strikes an idea/s for you. Thank you Posted Yesterday
Boston — Hi Rod, Please take a look at FEYE, GTLS & PPCH Thank you Posted Yesterday
tamaramessmann — CIG,PBR,DO,RIG,ECA please Posted Yesterday
Tony 48.75VAPEs — Pntv if it”s not too late Posted Yesterday
tamaramessmann — What is the upside target for CIG if it explodes higher. Posted Yesterday
Rod David — PNTV — Sorry, there”s not so much a pattern as an extended downtrend. Back above .025 on volume might suggest otherwise, but the trend meanwhile is down. Posted Yesterday
Rod David — CIG — It is looking like that now, isn”t it? Upside targets would be 5.95 and 6.45 Posted Yesterday
tamaramessmann — PBR- what is the upside target fot PBR? Posted Yesterday
tamaramessmann — PBR- what is the upside target fot PBR? Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — PBR — Closing above 9.28 would target 10.90 Posted Yesterday
Angceleste09 — Rod, CQH, do you see this 25.45 range as a buy ? Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — CQH — It”s resistance, and closing above it on volume would be bullish, especially if confirmed by a higher close the next day. But nothing else about it makes it a buy, and there is meanwhile potential for a deeper pullback to 24 Posted Yesterday
JustJulie — Thanks! excellent session. Posted 22 hours ago
fennecby — Hey Rod.
GLUU has NOT confirmed its breakout from Wed.
What does it mean generally when that happens? And more specifically when the next session – as in this case – still holds above what seems like the breakout line? Posted 19 hours ago
fennecby — and what would you consider an absorption of selling pressure in DDD after the initial response to earnings? Posted 14 hours ago
fennecby — interesting non-response pre-market, btw, on GWPH news. Posted 14 hours ago
Rod-David — GLUU — Not confirming has no particular meaning. There are inferences that would, themselves, need to be confirmed. For example, a second consecutive lower close today under Wednesday”s low would start to reverse the trend down. But being an inside day yesterday, the non-confirmation isn”t otherwise relevant. Another breakout attempt today would be as credible as Wednesday”s. Posted 13 hours ago
Rod-David — DDD — That was a double top, which began at last week”s high. Its 61.8% extension at 29.85 was met and held yesterday. Back above 31.30 would signal the corrective dip had ended. Posted 13 hours ago
JustJulie — BIIB down nearly 4% in premarket. Is this a buy opportunity? Posted 13 hours ago
Rod-David — BIIB — I can”t discount the potential to 391, but closing above 419.25 would put into play a retest of the highs Posted 13 hours ago
JustJulie — thanks Rod! i know u have seen this stuff all before. the numbers were fine – so far as i can see- yet this strong reaction down premarket. Something I am missing? I am going to see how it settles out. Fun morning! Posted 13 hours ago
JustJulie — From what I have observed, the spreads have been wide for a few weeks. A market order is NOT recommended for BIIB. imo Posted 12 hours ago
Brett-ster — Rod, are you seeing strong resistance on SALT around 2.75? Posted 12 hours ago
Brett-ster — Also, good entry point on AMZN? Posted 12 hours ago
Rod-David — AMZN — Yesterday. Posted 12 hours ago
Brett-ster — No kidding! Posted 12 hours ago
Rod-David — ;) Posted 12 hours ago
Rod-David — CNAB — Ultimately extended up to 1.09, raising its 61.8% retracement to .67, as discussed in yesterday”s Livestox. Just closing back above .83 would suggest the retracement was done already. The objective would be to probe above yesterday”s high Posted 12 hours ago
Rod-David — SALT — There”s a prior high at 2.75, but no particular resistance there, otherwise. Its recovery wouldn”t be predictive, but would be necessary along the way up to 3.65. My only concern with that right now is volume patterns aren”t very impressive Posted 12 hours ago
fennecby — thanks Rod. Posted 12 hours ago
Brett-ster — Thanks Posted 12 hours ago
tamaramessmann — CLF upside target Posted 12 hours ago
JustJulie — added 404.9 and 400. That small initial loss doesnt look so bad anymore! thanks for the help, rod. have a good day, all Posted 12 hours ago
JustJulie — One other thing…. i read that there is quite a bit of money outflowing from the market. and when watching the video last night, i wasnt sure if you are expecting that correction to come up. You showed how the ups and downs of the S&P need to reward buyers at some point. and perhaps more break to the upside. but are u suggesting minimal exposure now/soon/or not? thanks Posted 12 hours ago
Rod-David — My ongoing expectation has been for a probe above February”s highs, and I have been viewing the past several weeks as being significant distribution by strong hands. A bigger template has been looking for new highs to be brief and to be rejected sharply. Yesterday finally probed a new high. Posted 11 hours ago
Josey — So time for summer vacation already :) Posted 11 hours ago
Rod-David — Or, time to prepare for bear ETFs, puts, and short-selling Posted 11 hours ago
tamaramessmann — CLF what is the upside target please? Posted 10 hours ago
Rod-David — Sorry, I posted it earlier below in the wrong thread… Posted 10 hours ago
Rod-David — CLF — The targets were 5.80 and 6.10. That was before the past week”s interim extra dip. Today”s open gapped up to 5.80, and is now probing 6.10. Just closing above 6.05 would target 6.65 and 7.60. Posted 10 hours ago
Josey — Exit long strategy for GPRO, BLCM, VDSI. Thank You! Posted 10 hours ago
Josey — If the market were to close up 100 – 200 points up today in most cases would that have to follow through on Monday as long as the weekend happenings are status quo? Posted 10 hours ago
Rod-David — The market might close up in anticipation of a status quo weekend, and then dip Monday because it was. Posted 10 hours ago
kit650kr — YO ROD is PKLI doing the Break out I”ve been waiting for? And plz, can u set nu parameters 4 me? thx in advance BOSS Posted 7 hours ago — “Edited”
Rod-David — “PKLI” ? Posted 7 hours ago
casjf — OXIS – on the move Posted 7 hours ago
Josey — + 1 CASJF Posted 7 hours ago
recentiy03 — OXIS has so obviously been manipulated by MBAY for the past few days, this is long overdue IMHO. Still heavy on the bid, but someone snatched my shares up at .0395 a second ago…after seeing how quickly it dropped from .0374 under .03 the last time, and not pulling the trigger, I felt compelled to lock in a profit, but Rod”s original range prediction was well above where I sold…not sure what, if anything, has changed since then….and now dropping a bit, and the bids are gone, sometimes luck doesn”t hurt. Posted 7 hours ago — “Edited”
Josey — Good trade recentiy03 :) Posted 7 hours ago
recentiy03 — Thanks–I can”t explain the logistics, but I suspect the Euro exchange halt has screwed up the PPS for a while…the CEO was talking about arbitrage manipulation on their recent conference call, and I think MBAY (and others) got caught shorting. I do think OXIS will go higher, but profit is profit…will need to buy back at some point soon because the CEO indicated significant news is imminent, and that was on 3-31-15. Posted 7 hours ago — “Edited”
Miss Kitty — recentiy03 – the CEO indicated significant news is imminent, and that was on 3-31-15. Hmm, Sounds interesting, but 3-31-15, is that a typo? Posted 7 hours ago
recentiy03 — Imminent may be too strong an adjective, I wish I had written down the exact wording, I rewound to listen twice when he said it and soon is perhaps a better word choice. And yes, it was the CC he did for the 10Q, which was on 3-31. You can listen here: http://marijuanastocks.com/5-key-points-from-ox… Posted 7 hours ago — “Edited”
guanito — SRNA sucking wind. Might not be bottom fisher? Posted 7 hours ago
Josey — Miss Kitty/ recentiy03 Sounds like Mike did from ATTBF in the past. Posted 7 hours ago
recentiy03 — I don”t know enough about OXIS to say if that is a fair comparison; but to be fair to Mike, ATTBF did get screwed over by Health Canada”s ever-changing regulations and playing favoritism. Posted 6 hours ago — “Edited”
Rod-David — SRNA needs to close above .14 to reverse momentum up. But the ongoing chipping away at support isn”t helping Posted 6 hours ago
guanito — I”m out. Tks. 13 ticks from disaster. Posted 6 hours ago
Rod-David — PLKI — Nice bounce, but still under prior lows. Closing above 59.30 would be helpful, and then above 60.35, but back under 58 would target a retest of this week”s earlier consolidation, if not also lower. Posted 6 hours ago
tamaramessmann — OXIS what is the current target? Posted 6 hours ago
Rod-David — OXIS — target is.044-.046, so long as .034 now holds support Posted 6 hours ago
Jo B — well OXIS closed above ur support, so let”s see if it continues upwards on Monday Posted 5 hours ago
fennecby — AGEN – bought @5.42, sold 30 days later @7.35, per Rod”s target (HOD 7.45).
Thanks Rod. (-: Posted 5 hours ago
fennecby — (and y”all have a good weekend) Posted 5 hours ago
Jo B — that”s great Fennecby.. have a great weekend too Posted 5 hours ago
fennecby — Thanks Rod.
I truly hope, for the sector”s sake, that the names you mentioned will NOT be the new leadership (simply because the companies are, well… same old).
Anyways, will you be looking to short INSY?
And looking into next week (outside of the sector), and earnings, where is SILC going? Posted Yesterday
guanito — Tku. Posted an hour ago
Rod David — I”ll be looking to short stocks that have begun signaling weakness. New highs are not a sign of weakness, even if those new highs are satisfying buying pressure. Besides up and down, flat is a direction, too. Posted just now
Rod David — SILC — Nice volume pattern on Friday”s surge. So long as 42.08 holds as support, this leg has potential to blog through February”s double top on the way to 49.80 and 54.40. Posted just now
The First Trade… Compensating for the delay, or streching the rubber band?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Enter the chaRTroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
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Through the prior close…
Friday”s noon hour pierced Thursday”s high by a single tick, touching the afternoon”s 2114.75 bias-up signal as resistance. Otherwise, it was an inside day, contained entirely within Thursday”s range. Actually, within Thursday afternoon”s range, optimistically avoiding a dip back under the prior highs that Thursday morning”s surge exceeded. That was a breakout, and Friday”s inside day didn”t confirm it, despite being a new trend high close.. The entire session ranged in positive territory without extending higher, which is “ineffectual optimism.”
Overnight action”s new info…
Narrow ranging 1 point either way around 2112.75 suddenly surged to 2116.50 into Europe”s opens, presumably on expectation of China doing a round of QE. Europe”s concerns over Grexit immediately drove price down sharply to 2108.50. A relentless retracement recovered it all to now retest the initial high up to 2118.00.
If, then…
Friday”s complacency after Thursday”s breakout was a sign of things to come, but not necessarily a sell signal. The condition tells us to monitor for the next probe of fresh highs. Having reserved its energy Friday, will Monday compensate for the delay with a new breakout close, or will an intraday probe of fresh highs only stretch the rubber band to be reversed and to close negative. Either resolution could extend into Wednesday morning ahead of that afternoon”s FOMC policy statement.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2115.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2113.75 bias-up signal 30 minutes later at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2110.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.