Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot… Can crude catch an updraft?
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Reacting down from Friday”s test of the 1.0855 target didn”t gap down enough Monday to signal the recovery reversing, but also didn”t recover enough to signal the rally had resumed. There is not currently an active signal, but at least a corrective dip to 1.0650 is underway so long as 1.0780 holds as resistance.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday”s test of 1205.00-1208.50 resistance reacted back down Sunday to test 1194.50 support, which was still being overlapped Monday and not decisively broken. But having tested and retested it already and already again, if its support were so solid, then it should not require so much testing before launching a recovery. Immediate strength would still be credible for extending higher, but now only back to recent highs around 1225.00.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday”s gap down to 16.10 support extended down to fresh lows intraday testing 15.85, which undermines the near-term recovery potential.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Yet another single-session surge was retraced to a relevant level with Friday”s rally to 165-19 being retraced Monday morning down to 164-04, and then lower. Closing under 163-18 would re-signal a new downleg underway.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
[Rolling coverage forward from May to Jun]… A dip before Monday”s open was too late to gain traction, recovering back toward the recent high. The delay in fulfilling the 59.30 target (basis Jun, 57.90 basis May) is “ineffectual pessimism” that makes its eventual test likely to be probed on the way to 62.45.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday”s gap down to 2.54 support is the cheapest acceptable pricing for the recovery”s momentum to remain intact. And now there”s a gap outstanding back up to Friday”s close that can help to encourage the recovery to resume.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Apr 21 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday”s calendar is sparse. Redbook”s retail data isn”t usually influential, but a surprise in this vacuum could be magnified.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2105.25 | 2098.25 |
| …would target | 2110.75 | 2104.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2096.00 | 2089.25 |
| …would target | 2091.00 | 2084.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Phoenix, ashes, you get the gist.
Overnight rally has bled into intraday.
If the overnight rally were going to extend today, then there was no bullish reason to delay it much past the open. And it wasn”t.
The opening bar touched the support of this morning”s 2084.50 bias-up target to prevent resuming the pre-open pullback. Its reaction up was steep and substantial. A half-hour later, the market was 10 points higher touching 2094.25.
That was the first time any RSI had diverged negatively. The reaction down to 2090.00 has been mostly recovered. Extending higher would next target 2095.25 (being probed now). Regardless, this is a bias-up environment, renewed by exceeding its bias-up target through 10:15.
The balance of the session could be much more productive than that.
Assuming that this morning”s bias environment continues hovering around 2094.00 highs, the bias environment”s exit would be well-positioned to resume the rally into the afternoon. Resuming the rally, at all, could extend significantly — through 2097.50 would likely probe into the 2100”s.
The pattern is playing out in-line with the pre-open description, which means that I”m not considering sell signal. Exiting the bias environment back under this morning”s 2084.50 bias-up target might be the earliest that a sell signal could be considered.
Thursday”s 2089 pre-open low is
Thursday”s 2089 pre-open low is last night”s high. Recovering it through a relevant timing window would be a critical difference between retracing and reversing Friday”s drop, or just temporarily correcting it. If the bullish WedEX has anything to say about it, then the open should already get that done. Here”s details in the pre-maket Tour recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/xmjjzps