Rod David – Page 1905 – If, Then… Market Timing

The First Trade… China, Greece, Bloomberg and S&Ps — they’re baaack.

By Rod David | April 20, 2015 - 7:48 am

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the chaRTroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Responding to China”s drop, Greece”s ongoing Grexit and Bloomberg”s outage — and attracted to a retest of Thursday”s 2089.00 pre-open low — S&Ps plunged 15 points in Friday”s early morning hours. The open was greeted by a failed bounce that extended the drop another 18 points through the afternoon bias environment, totaling 34 points from Thursday”s close. The last timing window rallied 12 points to retrace almost all of the afternoon”s portion of the drop.

Overnight action”s new info…
China rallied sharply in reaction to easing bank reserve requirements. Greece may be getting $5 billion from Russia. And, Bloomberg hasn”t gone dark again. Sunday night”s open gapped up 5 points, and eventually added another 8 points to pierce 2089.00 by 3 ticks. That”s a Fibonacci 61.8% retracement back to Thursday”s high. And it is now reacting down to test 2083.00.

If, then…
Was Friday afternoon”s recovery enabled by the bullish WedEX expiration indicator? Then its influence on Monday morning should be aggressively bullish. Gapping up is irrelevant to the indicator — trending up through the opening 15 minutes of volatility would be highly reliable for trending up through the morning. By the same token, trending down through the open would invalidate the signal, if not invert it, in either case being attracted down to fill the gap back to Friday”s close.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2086.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2084.50 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2082.00 would be less likely to exceed the bias-up target in time to renew the signal.

Posted in S&P, The First Trade

The Universe, week of April 20 2015… GWPH target met, newer buys, TRTC challenge

By Rod David | April 19, 2015 - 11:58 am

Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]

Links to ||
Last week”s Universe || Prior week”s Universe || Previous week”s Universe ||

Three of the seven stocks I highlighted here last week experienced notable gains — CARA, OSLH and CNAB. A fourth, OXIS, fulfilled its pullback target that I began describing one week earlier on Livestox. The remaining two bullish patterns remained intact, DIGP and MYHI, while SRNA”s lows held their ground.

Marketfy”s portfolio Trade Alert system has been experiencing difficulties, preventing two orders I placed Friday in OXIS from reporting fills at .031 and .034. In case Marketfy”s problems aren”t resolved soon, know that I am also stalking CARA.

Be sure to monitor the Activity Feed for my updated pricing. Also, consider sending me your email address for a back-up list I”m compiling in case there is ever an outage of the platform altogether — Bloomberg went dark globally Friday, so let”s not stick our collective heads in the sand.

Regarding two other stocks: GWPH fulfilled my longstanding 115 target, and is now probing the room for noise above it. TRTC can”t tolerate any further weakness without opening the door to sharply lower lows, so firming only modestly ahead of its alleged CNBC midweek segment would be a concern.

Marijuana Stock Universe for April 20 2015
Reference this table during stock reactions
4-week	# up:	14	13.86%
trends*	# flat:	20	19.80%
	# down:	67	66.34%
*The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks.

symbol	support	resistance	4-week trend
ACGX	0.000	0.003	flat
AERO	2.310	4.030	down
AGTK	0.015	0.040	down
AMMJ	0.360	0.570	down
ARNA	3.800	5.030	flat
ATTBF	0.093	0.175	flat
AVTC	0.850	1.120	down
AXXU	0.066	0.377	down
BLOZF	0.280	0.570	up
BLPG	0.120	0.370	down
BNRDF	0.605	0.795	flat
BRDT	0.032	0.094	down
BTFL	0.071	0.232	down
CANL	1.050	1.570	flat
CANN	1.690	4.600	down
CANV	2.290	2.690	down
CARA	10.970	12.230	up
CBDS	1.830	5.630	down
CBGI	0.002	0.015	down
CBIS	0.034	0.050	down
CGRW	0.360	0.750	down
CHUM	n/a	n/a	down
CNAB	0.425	0.095	down
DEWM	0.004	0.011	up
DIGP	0.035	0.100	up
DSCR	0.000	0.025	down
EAPH	0.013	0.028	flat
EDXC	0.019	0.047	down
ENDO	0.014	0.031	down
ENRT	0.032	0.050	down
ERBB	0.006	0.010	down
ETST	n/a	n/a	down
EXMT	0.000	0.004	down
FITX	0.005	0.012	down
CAFS	0.025	0.066	up
FSPM	0.000	0.250	down
FULL	3.550	4.140	down
FWDG	0.002	0.006	down
GBLX	0.126	0.338	down
GRCU	0.000	0.004	down
GRNH	0.055	0.098	down
GWPH	105.050	120.250	up
HEMP	0.016	0.025	down
ICBU	0.002	0.011	down
IGRW	0.002	0.004	flat
IMLFF	0.175	0.275	flat
INCC	0.001	0.007	flat
INSY	56.250	65.200	up
ITNS	0.006	0.011	down
LATF	0.001	0.003	down
LXRP	0.060	0.129	flat
MCIG	0.068	0.105	down
MCPI	n/a	n/a	flat
MDBX	0.950	2.270	down
MDCN	0.005	0.022	flat
MDRM	0.016	0.038	down
MINE	0.003	0.007	down
MJMD	0.000	0.015	down
MJMJ	0.020	0.499	down
MJNA	0.080	0.011	down
MNTR	0.507	0.928	down
MYEC	0.012	0.027	down
MYHI	0.120	0.330	up
NDEV	0.113	0.260	down
NRTI	0.005	0.019	down
NTRR	0.045	0.110	flat
OGRMF	0.304	0.615	down
OSLH	0.018	0.030	up
OXIS	0.030	0.051	up
PHOT	0.019	0.065	down
PLPL	0.220	0.315	down
PMCB	0.184	0.289	up
PNTV	n/a	n/a	down
PZOO	0.007	0.020	down
QEDN	0.001	0.007	down
REDG	0.000	0.003	flat
RFMK	0.000	0.002	down
RSSFF	0.069	0.266	flat
SING	0.008	0.016	flat
SKTO	0.000	0.004	down
SPRWF	0.141	0.230	down
SRNA	0.105	0.165	down
STEV	0.071	0.100	flat
TAUG	0.054	0.079	down
THCZ	0.177	0.273	up
TRTC	0.182	0.235	down
TURV	0.410	0.775	flat
TWMJF	1.420	1.860	flat
UPOT	0.150	0.550	down
USEI	0.000	0.003	down
UTRM	0.000	0.000	down
VAPE	0.360	0.613	down
VAPR	0.030	0.090	down
VGPR	0.000	0.002	down
VHUB	0.019	0.040	down
VPCO	0.594	0.970	down
VPOR	0.000	0.003	down
WDHR	0.000	0.002	down
WOGI	0.004	0.009	up
XTRM	0.004	0.007	up
XXII	1.010	1.560	flat

Posted in Bigger Picture

Saturday Review’s recording (for 4/18/15) — Was Friday’s drop just a one-off?

By Rod David | April 18, 2015 - 3:41 pm

A funny thing happened on the way to retesting prior highs… Greece makes “not-news” on Grexit, China makes real news with short-selling, and Bloomberg terminals prevent even reading the news. Result? Traders scramble for the exits ahead of weekend illiquidity. Can the upside resume, how, and how to recognize it almost immediately, are just three questions answered in this weekend”s Saturday Review (linked below). Also, stock chart analysis requests! (OXIS, MU, STX, ADM, PCAR, LRCX, KR, DG, ALV, GOOGL, FB, NFLX)

NEW! The recording was made in MP4, with superior audio quality, and accessible by a variety of platforms:
http://www.anymeeting.com/nrodpywxnayx/E159DD82814B

Here”s the older format if you experience any difficulty:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/hthhbrm

Posted in S&P, Saturday Review

We don”t need no stinkin”

By Rod David | April 18, 2015 - 8:31 am

We don”t need no stinkin” Bloomberg terminals…

This weekend”s Saturday Review begins in one hour at 9:30 ET. We”ll review market scenarios, and your stock chart analysis requests. Log-in anytime at
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkphyy

Posted in S&P

Morning bias

By Rod David | April 17, 2015 - 4:49 pm

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET)	SPX	ES
Bias-up: above	2086.50	2079.50
…would target	2091.25	2084.50
Bias-down: under	2077.25	2070.50
…would target	2072.25	2065.25
Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED		FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.

Posted in Bias-parameters, S&P