Posts by Rod David
Thursday”s late 4-point bounce to
Thursday”s late 4-point bounce to 2101.25 could have made hold-long compelling. But most of the bounce came after the cash session close, too late not to be noise. The cash session close was within the noon hour”s range, too high not to be noise. Buyers and sellers were in proximity to gain traction, but did not.
Is that foreshadowing Friday”s expiration session? Gapping up above Thursday”s 2104.75 high would get a benefit of the doubt for forming a “session-long rally.” Opening under Thursday”s late 2097 low would target a retest of 2088-2090 support already tested pre-open Thursday. Trending through the opening 15 minutes of volatility would likely trend in that direction through the session.
Doing none of these could instead be range bound through the day.
The passively bearish WedEX applies to Friday afternoon and Monday morning, so it won”t inform the open. Trending up during the morning wouldn”t prevent trending higher in the afternoon, and neither would trending down in the morning.
But we still have high confidence in the trend being up — trends tend not to end near expiration, and Thursday”s recovery proves sponsorship of Wednesday”s decline was weak-handed
Thursday”s post-market Wrap has more details. And picture.
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/zvssjzz
Pre-close view… Weaker-handed bounce?
Yesterday”s drop retraced entirely. Better not stop here.
Delaying the recovery from 2095.00”s open is more significant than not repeating the pre-open probe under it. While that did not probe lower post-open — let alone retest the pre-open low — the base is suspect.
That didn”t prevent probing 3 points above the bias-up signal to 2104.75, despite being a no-bias environment. But that was the most cohesive any sponsorship has been all day.
Being no-bias trending, the 2101.50 bias-up signal should be retested as support (update: it just was). Often, the actual 1:20 print — which was 2100.00 — will be retested, too.
Not holding 2100.00, if tested, could start to trigger a slide that fulfills potential to 2093.50 if not also 2088.00. Regardless of another dip, the complete recovery today has proved that yesterday”s late sellers were weak-handed.
Daily Spot… Is the bond finally breaking?
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Yesterday”s post-close surge to 1.0700 reacted down sharply overnight to 1.0650, but nevertheless recovered it all Thursday and then some to test 1.0810. The 1.0850 area target remains in-play so long as pullbacks now hold 1.0780 as support.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite an early rally Thursday to 1208.50, a plunge tested 1194.50 support. It held, but now its break can trigger a new downleg if 1205.00-1208.50 isn”t recovered without delay.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Early strength Thursday to the 16.45 resistance whose recovery would start to signal momentum reversing up, but its reaction down tested the critical 16.10 support that can”t tolerate closing below it.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday morning”s break through 164-04 extended lower, filling the gap back down to Monday”s 163-18 close, and attacking prior lows around 163-00. Reacting up optimistically to 164-00 doesn”t allow the pattern much room or time before extending down more substantially under 162-08.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday”s test of the 56.00 target reacted down to attack 55.05 before Thursday”s open, which held the 55.20 pullback limit, before reversing up to fresh highs at 57.00. The 57.90 target remains in-play.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Not greeting Thursday”s EIA report from a position of strength, despite having bounced recently to 2.62, left the pattern vulnerable to an initially negative knee-jerk reaction. But also not greeting the.news from a position of weakness made that reaction likely to recover, possibly also launching a durable rally leg. So, reacting down to 2.54 was reversed to fresh highs at 2.69. A second consecutive higher close Friday would confirm the new rally leg underway. Pullbacks meanwhile should hold 2.60 to maintain the rally”s momentum.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Apr 17 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Three — count ”em — three economic reports that reflect consumer health. Each is high-profile, and each is reliable for influencing price action.
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
Morning action neither here nor there.
Eventually firming, still overlapping.
Bouncing during the bias environment up to 2099.50 still retraced back down to the 2095.00 bias-down signal. Firming into the noon hour is now retesting 2099.50.
Recovering already still isn”t optimal, regardless of further evidence that the drop since yesterday”s highs has been sponsored by weak hands. But recovering would be credible if the noon hour exit had continued recovering.
Otherwise, there would remain potential for a fresh low to retest the overnight highs lows.