Posts by Rod David
Afternoon bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2108.25 | 2101.50 |
| …would target | 2113.50 | 2106.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2099.75 | 2093.00 |
| …would target | 2194.75 | 2088.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Rejecting the rejection.
Gap down to support seems comfortable there.
The pre-open test of this morning”s 2090.00 bias-down target was recovered to open at the 2095.00 bias-down signal.
Recovering 2097.00 through 9:45 would have made bias-down unlikely to trigger at 10:15. But 2097.00 wasn”t recovered — or, at best, was still being overlapped. In the same vein, bias-down was still being tested at 10:15 to invoke the grace period, which did trigger late bias-down.
At least, bearish enough to inhibit recovering this morning. But the drop”s sponsorship is still weak-handed. Bias-down triggered late, so its 2090.00 target need not be met. But having tested its target already overnight, testing it again would likely visit 2088.00.
Not extending the gap down for an hour isn”t bullish for having delayed lower lows, it”s bearish for having ranged around support so long without attracting buyers. So, the nearest buy signal is above 2097.00 or higher — I would be skeptical of any rally effort prior to probing some fresh low. (And 2097.00 is being attacked right now)
The pre-open dive found support
The pre-open dive found support two hours ago upon probing the midpoint of Tuesday afternoon”s 2088-2090 “lower prior highs,” which contains this morning”s bias-down target. Ranging since then has attacked the 2095 bias-down signal, but opening above it isn”t indicated. Holding a retest of the overnight lows would likely launch a bounce this morning. Not even triggering the 2095 bias-down signal could launch a short-squeeze back to and through yesterday”s highs. But there”s no assurance of recovering today if 2088-2090 were broken through a relevant timing window… Here”s the pre-market Tour recording for more detail:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bwzzmth
The First Trade…
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NOTE: EMAIL ME IF YOU”RE ENCOUNTERING DIFFICULTY ENTERING THE CHARTROOM THIS MORNING.
Enter the chaRTroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday”s gap up from 2090.00 to 2095.50 extended higher, retesting last week”s 2101.25 high. This had created plenty of room for dipping back down to 2095.50 into the morning bias environment”s exit, without damaging the uptrend”s momentum. The afternoon”s bias environment surged higher to test 2105.50. A late dip back under the morning”s high ended just under 2100.00, fulfilling the higher close that last week”s confirmed breakout had put into play. WedEX triggered passively bullish.
Overnight action”s new info…
Narrow sideways ranging up to 2102.75 began probing lower into and out of Europe”s opens. The drop has steepened and extended to probe not only yesterday”s 2095.50 lows, but to also touch the upper-end of Tuesday”s 2088.00-2090.00 “lower prior highs.”
There culprit appears to be Greece, which apparently is experiencing some sort of cash flow issue, i.e. not news.
If, then…
The sponsorship behind yesterday”s late dip was weak-handed. Extending lower overnight can prove to be weak-handed by remaining within the range. And that range”s lower-end is Tuesday”s 2088.00-2090.00 “lower prior highs” — whose upper-end has been touched. Somehow recovering enough for the post-open action not to print under yesterday”s 2095.50 low would suggest that momentum had reversed up. The longer that a bounce doesn”t recover 2095.50, the likelier it has only refueled sellers to resolve down. If the open”s gap down holds within the 2088.00-2090.00 orbit, then WedEX could become passively bearish by proxy.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2093.25 would be likely to trigger the 2095.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2097.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 2101.25 would be likely at least to test the 2104.75 bias-up signal.
Morning bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2111.50 | 2104.75 |
| …would target | 2116.75 | 2110.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2101.50 | 2095.00 |
| …would target | 2096.75 | 2090.00 |
| Signal status: STILL TESTING BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.