Posts by Rod David
Last week”s confirmed breakout required
Last week”s confirmed breakout required an eventual higher close. Wednesday fulfilled it. The breakout requires no higher close. That doesn”t mean the breakout has ended. And it does allow for another corrective dip.
The WedEX indicator was on-track for an actively bullish signal. But despite spending the entire afternoon”s bias environment above the morning”s highs, a late dip closed lower. The session was still positive on the day, probing fresh trend highs, so it is at least a passively bullish WedEX. Gapping up Thursday above Wednesday”s highs would serve by proxy to improve the signal to actively bullish.
In fact, firming overnight through 2104 would be credible for extending higher tomorrow without delay. Wednesday”s late dip was the product of a corrective Expanding Triangle, whose 2099.50 target was met, and held, and retested while 1-minute RSI diverged positively.
Otherwise, not resuming the rally Thursday would target Tuesday”s “lower prior highs” at 2088-2090. More details are available in the post-market Wrap recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/rkrrzjr
Pre-close view… Laurel-resting time again?
Buyers entrenched.
The invalidated bias environment eventually touched 2105.50, but hasn”t really trended any higher than the actual invalidation surge. Ranging sideways has been supported by this afternoon”s 2102.00 bias-up signal.
And that”s above the morning”s highs. Exiting the bias environment above the morning”s highs essentially marginalizes sellers.
At least, if sellers try taking control, they should fail. And having formed an Expanding Triangle, there is potential for retracing down to 2099.50. That had better be only a retracement. Otherwise, patient sellers could allow a deeper pullback.
Meanwhile, last week”s confirmed breakout required an eventual higher close, which today is likely to fulfill. An actively bullish WedEX indicator is likely, too. We”ll discuss the character of its influence at today”s post-market Wrap.
Daily Spot… Crude Oil target met, Euro traps shorts.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday”s gap up above Friday”s highs was retraced overnight to test the 1.0585 pullback limit at Wednesday”s open. It was recovered to probe Tuesday”s highs around 1.0700, keeping alive potential to the 1.0850 area.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Lower lows Tuesday night didn”t extend and Wednesday”s open was still overlapping 1194.50 to suggest the pullback was only temporary. Intraday highs attacked 1203.00, so that extending above 1205.00-1208.50 Thursday can launch a new upleg.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Choppy sideways Wednesday ranging held the 16.02-16.10 support that had held Tuesday, bouncing back above 16.30. Closing at least within the 16.45-16.60 range would begin suggesting the decline had ended.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
An early dip Wednesday probed momentarily under 164-04 before recovering bouncing to test and retest 165-00 resistance, supported by Tuesday”s 164-08 low. Another dip under 164-04 should gain traction and extend.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Trending higher overnight probed last week”s highs Wednesday above 54.00. That extended higher already to its 56.00 target. The rally might have gotten ahead of itself, so pullbacks must hold 55.20 to maintain the upward momentum. Closing back under 53.00 would signal momentum reversing down.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up again Wednesday fully exploited its room to 2.60, probing a couple of pennies above it. A pullback should now precede a more substantial rally leg. Thursday”s EIA report isn”t being greeted from a position of weakness, so an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down should recover.
Livestox, April 9 2015 — stock chart review
Tuesday”s Livestox reviewed the following issues in this order:
CLF
USO
CARA
OSLH
OXIS
DIGP
MYH
CNAB
SRNA
VPOR
MINE
VDSI
VALE
IMGN
PPCH
FEYE
MCP
SZYM
CWCO
GPRE
Yep. They’re getting it.
Fresh highs confirming that optimism has become widespread.
There were two momentary dips this morning, and both held their maximum pullback limits, snapping back up. But neither of the recoveries has extended.
Until now.
The open”s blip-down reacted up immediately from the 2094.50 bias-up signal”s support. The bias environment”s exit pierced 2095.50-2096.25 and firmed through the noon hour.
But all of that was one, big consolidation. And it is breaking higher now, attacking 2105.00. RSIs are overbought at the high.
It”s too late to trigger the 2102.00 bias-up signal, and this is not a late bias-up That was attacked to within 1 tick, 1 minute before the 3-minute window around 1.20. Not close enough to trigger the grace period.
This is an invalidate no-bias. The bias parameters are not influential. There is no requirement to test the 2107.25 bias-up target. Trending up isn”t reliable right now, anyway, with the Beige Book just minutes away. Regardless of an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down, I continue to be bullish.
And we”re on-track to fulfill the minimum third higher close projected by last week”s confirmed breakout. That need not be the trend”s end, especially since we”re setting up for an actively bullish WedEX — which we”ll discuss during the post-market Wrap.