Posts by Rod David
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Volatility blips.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s open was greeted near the lower-end of overnight ranging at 2719.00, ranging that had broken lower temporarily down to 2709.00. The recovery extended during the morning to probe above Thursday’s 2736.50 highs, and then dipped. A noon hour probe to higher highs attacked 2749.00, and then dipped. One more probe above Thursday’s highs got to only 2745.00, and then dipped, but recovered back up to 2745.00. Closing at or above Thursday’s highs avoided rejecting or invalidating Thursday’s bottoming pattern, but didn’t quite confirm that momentum was reversing up. The bearish WedEX influence was nominal, holding under the noon hour’s highs, and the last dip retesting the bias environment’s entry.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open was greeted by two negative news items, as both US-China trade and PM May seemed to be falling apart. Gapping down under Friday’s last dip touched 2729.00 as a narrowing range formed around this morning’s 2734.00 bias-down signal. Surging into and out of Europe’s opens attacked Friday’s highs up to 2748.00, but only briefly. And only temporarily, now having retraced the surge back down to attack 2730.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Friday’s borderline bearish WedEX influence is enough for initial post-open selling pressure to be credible for producing bearish behavior until this morning’s bias environment lapses. No immediate post-open bearish behavior wouldn’t necessarily be bullish, but should be, since earlier overnight weakness would have failed to attract reinforcements. Regardless, morning trending in either direction would remain vulnerable to reversing direction through the afternoon.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2731.75 would be likely to trigger the 2734.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2741.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2744.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2746.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 11/17/18) …Time to turn?
Wednesday’s low held a test of the decline’s next lower objective under 2764.00 at 2685.00-2686.00 (to within 1 tick). Thursday’s brief lower low held its retest, and also filled the gap outstanding from the two-week old low session, and then reversed up to close higher. Friday almost confirmed the trend has reversed up — which it may be.
We’ll know more on Monday, after the morning’s exposure to a bearish WedEX influence. Regardless, the next significant direction is about to begin. This week’s Saturday Review discusses the relevant prices and behaviors to either template, and also how the paths might navigate the Thanksgiving holiday’s seasonal bullishness.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
FB, AMZN, AAPL, NFLX, GOOG(L), ADBE, V, NVDA, WMT, KO, FCX, UA, SYMC
transcript
(11/17/2018 09:30)
Adam: Hi
(11/17/2018 09:31)
Rod David: Welcome to Saturday Review. Please post questions and comments as they occur to you.
jp: gm
Mark G: gm
David B: Good Morning
Bill G: gm
(11/17/2018 09:52)
Mark G: inverse H&S at Thu low?
(11/17/2018 09:58)
Mark G: right
(11/17/2018 10:07)
Mark G: bearish extension down to 2654/35 by Tue will likely recover still in liu of the seasonal bullishness?
David B: ADBE,V
(11/17/2018 10:11)
Mark G: AAPL down Mon should help ES on a downside if it happens
(11/17/2018 10:13)
Mark G: *if*
(11/17/2018 10:23)
Mark G: NVDA – liklihood of 130?
(11/17/2018 10:26)
David B: WMT,KO
(11/17/2018 10:27)
Mark G: bounce potential ?
(11/17/2018 10:31)
Mark G: thx much
(11/17/2018 10:33)
David B: is FCX,UA,or SYMC possible jan candidates?
(11/17/2018 10:40)
Mark G: UGAZ
(11/17/2018 10:42)
Mark G: correlating that to natural gaas – still looking for a retest on that?
Bill G: Lot of talk that the recent move of CL and Nat Gas just the reversal of a pair trade?
David B: Does a false wed ex bearish or bullish that does not occurr on fri afternoon and mon morning tells us the next direction of the market?
(11/17/2018 10:47)
Mark G: thx
David B: Thanks
Bill G: thanks
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2743.00 | 2744.00 |
| …would target | 2749.75 | 2750.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2733.25 | 2734.00 |
| …would target | 2727.00 | 2727.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday’s open recovered from an overnight slide, and probed above Thursday’s highs 2-3 times. The 2736.00 close was at or above Thursday’s highs to avoid rejecting or invalidating Thursday’s bottoming pattern. But Friday’s close did not qualify as confirmation that momentum has reversed up. Given that overnight sellers failed to exploit the opportunity of breaking under 2709.00, reversing up intraday to attack 2749.00 suggests that sellers are weak-handed. But further bullish behaviors are needed since that intraday surge also neutralized upside attractions without putting into play anything new. Meanwhile, still testing the afternoon bias environment’s 2736.00 entry wasn’t decisively bearish WedEX influence, but neither was it decisively rejected. So, any immediately bearish behavior Monday would still be credible for trending down aggressively through the morning.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND’S SATURDAY REVIEW.