Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Not yet resolving down by Friday’s open kept the door open to extending the corrective bounce for a test of the original 1.1400 sell signal, which was probed intraday up to 1.1445. Closing above 1.1480 would suggest a bigger bounce underway, but otherwise closing back under 1.1400 would once again target recent lows.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Extending the bounce into Friday fulfilled its 1222.00 corrective bounce target and tested “higher prior lows” while also filling a gap up to 1226.00. Closing back under 1220.50 would start to signal the bounce was failing, and targeting a retest of 1201.50.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already extending higher overnight was able to test its 14.36 corrective bounce target Friday morning, up to 14.40 in the afternoon, also testing “higher prior lows” and filling a gap. Closing back under 14.25 would signal a retest of recent lows and lower underway.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s reaction down had not broken under any relevant support, keeping alive upside momentum that enabled retesting Thursday’s high on Friday morning. The rally resumed up to 139-20, now needing a second consecutive higher close to confirm a more durable rally is underway.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness had only prevented a favorable knee-jerk reaction from extending, but didn’t prevent extending higher anyway overnight into Friday morning up to 57.95. Regardless, Tuesday’s plunge all but requires a retest or probe of its 54.75-55.55 lows before any durable bottom could form, which became much more obvious as the morning’s gap up was reversed by $2 to probe negative territory down to 56.90.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Only a slightly lower low overnight down to 3.90 preceded Friday’s flat-to-higher ranging, which retraced 61.8% of Thursday’s post-open range up to 4.35. Extending the pullback from Wednesday’s high would next target 3.80.
Mid-day Update… One way or another.
Attraction above neutralized, just in time.
The offsetting test of this morning’s 2738.25 bias-up signal was met at this morning’s high.
Its reaction down could have been shallow and/or brief, but it was deep — down to 2721.50 by noon.
Ultimately, a surge up to 2748.75 fulfilled the offsetting test of this morning’s 2745.50 bias-up target. The surge there was triggered by a Trump tweet on China trade, but it didn’t require extending so high.
Anyway, now this afternoon’s bias environment has begun, and a bearish WedEX influence is likely. The noon hour’s surge has been retraced already down to 2724.75, largely retracing the tweet’s origin, and all of the 2727.25 buy signal that it had triggered.
Friday afternoon’s Bearish WedEX can be shallow, too, and usually is. Regardless, price action should be biased downward through the close.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Nov 19, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Fed speaker John Williams is pretty busy Monday. And he’s the session’s only influence other than two low-profile reports due post-open.
*John Williams Speaks
9:40 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
E-Commerce Retail Sales
10:00 AM ET
*John Williams Speaks
10:45 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*John Williams Speaks
3:15 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2733.25 | 2734.25 |
| …would target | 2741.25 | 2742.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2719.75 | 2720.50 |
| …would target | 2709.50 | 2710.25 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-UP PARAMETERS | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Looking up, until.
Sellers have trapped themselves.
The 2722.50-2731.50 overnight range had broken lower after Europe’s opens. It extended down to 2708.75 before bouncing pre-open. A post-open pullback held the 2714.75 bias-down target as support to launch a recovery back into and through the overnight range.
Having tested the bias-down target, not triggering its 2724.75 bias-down signal has put into play offsetting tests of BOTH bias-up parameters. Already, the 2738.25 bias-up signal has been tested up to 2740.50. A reaction down now testing 2734.25 must recover to maintain the 2745.50 bias-up target.
This afternoon’s bearish WedEX influence doesn’t yet have much room to be very influential without damaging the recovery attempt. Bearish WedEX on Friday need not be steep, but a reliable bottom would try creating as much room as possible to absorb corrections.