Posts by Rod David

Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]

Links to ||
Last week”s Universe || Prior week”s Universe || Previous week”s Universe ||

Happy Anniversary! Nonchalant anniversary? Not dispassionate anniversary. These are just some of the suggestions I found when searching out a word to describe the halfway point between happy and sad.

Because, “Happy Anniversary on being one year from the Marijuana sector top!” doesn”t seem appropriate. Meanwhile, I don”t think the prevalence of relatively cheap pricing should be cause for sadness.

Actually, the anniversary of my sector top alert was two weeks ago. I don”t want to diminish the impact of that call. Some subscribers took me at face value and exited. Some at least allowed their vision to include what seemed at the time to be the impossibility of prices not trending up let alone down. Others accused me of complicity with professional shorts. Good times, good times.

The anniversary that I”m recognizing this week has more utility than that warning. It was the first opportunity since then for a sector-wide rally. 

I recall well the day following last April 15. We didn”t miss the oversold technical indications and the targeted supports that were met into the prior close (”
many issues among our sector are at a decision point” morning of April 15). It was make-or-break time. 

And there was, in fact, a number of significant bounces through the week”s end. But a significant number did not last through the weekend.

My sector peak warning was useful once. The understanding and appreciation of an ongoing downtrend has been repeatedly useful. We don”t recognize that anniversary with the greatest happiness, but neither should useful knowledge be associated with sadness. Perhaps the best answer I found to what marks the halfway point between happy and sad is that they”re two separate emotions, not necessarily two ends of the same spectrum, so they are measurable separately.

That insight was on a web site for depression.

On a different, but related note, the sector”s next big development is probably a ruling on the constitutionality of cannabis being a schedule-1 drug. In case of any favorable development for the sector, will one stock react any better than another? Stocks that are in downtrends making a series of lower lows and lower highs could react well, no less likely than the few stocks in uptrends. Initially, at least. 

But what if the news is unfavorable? Stocks in uptrends would be vulnerable, but probably only temporarily. So, while it”s tempting to take at face value a 100% degree of confidence in there being a favorable development, let”s honor the right anniversary — respect the trend, and limit the bottom-fishing or knife-catching of stocks in downtrends, while overweighting exposure to issues already in uptrends.

There are two of the former category that have at least met a targeted support, and only recently so as not to coagulate there –CNAB (.425-.440) and SRNA (.105-.120).

Two qualify for the latter category without being extended — CARA (back above 11.25) — or currently retracing from being extended — OXIS (.030-.033).

Three others have attractive price patterns, but their sporadic volume trends prevent specifying price parameters — DIGP, MYHI, OSLH. 

Please share your thoughts and familiarity about any of the above issues in this post”s comments section.

Enjoy!