Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Apr 14 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
PPI and Retail sales reflect two ends of the economic spectrum. They probably won”t be surprisingly strong, so imagine the market”s reaction if they are. Whether the Fed will actually raise rates is irrelevant if the perception is they will. The day”s other econ reports have no track record of influencing price action.
PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
9:00 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2107.75 | 2101.00 |
| …would target | 2113.75 | 2107.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2100.00 | 2093.25 |
| …would target | 2094.75 | 2088.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… No rest for the wicked rally.
Bias-up, almost out of the gate.
A pre-open dip to 2090.00 was recovered to greet the open at 2094.00. That was up 5 ticks from less than 5 minutes earlier. The 2098.00 bias-up signal was touched 5 minutes later.
Persistently overbought 3-minute RSI reflected buying pressure strong enough to maintain the upward momentum. And the rally did extend to 2101.25.
An extra dip along the way did touch the bias-up signal within 3 minutes of 10:15 to invoke the grace period. But it resolved up to trigger late bias-up. The 2103.25 bias-up target is in-play. Being triggered late, the target isn”t a requirement, just very likely — especially if another fresh high were to print after 10:30.
A corrective dip under 2097.00 could be satisfied less than 3 points lower, or else test 2092.00. But the trend remains up so long as no deeper dip were to materialize.
The 2091.50 line in the
The 2091.50 line in the sand is still being tested as the open approaches. Holding it through 9:45, or not, is still the likely difference between the rally resuming or a pullback intervening. Here”s details in the pre-market Tour recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/cxwwzww
The First Trade.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Enter the chaRTroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday”s open was preceded by a blip-up to fresh highs at 2090.50 in reaction to GE”s buyback announcement. The move had complexity, trending to higher highs with its interim low holding above Thursday”s 2087.00 high. That “complexity” made the overnight high”s retest likely. Initially reacting down to 2084.50 failed to gain traction. The overnight attraction above reinstated upward momentum that became entrenched by “Friday factors” that create barriers to intraday reversals. The balance of the session trended up to 2096.00 into the close.
Overnight action”s new info…
Sunday night”s open blipped-up to 2097.75, and then began sliding. Its 2093.00 low greeted Europe”s opens, extending down to 2089.00. That was retraced to test 2093.00 as resistance, which has held as resistance for the past two hours.
If, then…
Having trended up through the prior close, gapping down under the prior afternoon”s 2091.50 bias environment low could form a “session-long decline” setup. When attempted across a weekend, this setup often fails and resolves up. Often. But sometimes they gain traction. Regardless of how it might begin, today is vulnerable to a corrective dip after Friday confirmed Thursday”s breakout.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2091.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2098.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2086.50 would be likely to trigger the 2088.75 bias-down signal.