Posts by Rod David
Post-open review… Chip, chip, chip.
Post-open swings becoming more violent.
Support, meet resistance. The pre-pullback held within 1 tick of its 2071.25 limit and the open surged to test this morning”s 2081.25 bias-up signal. Taht was a little too quick, and its reaction down fell back down to the 2072.75 opening print. Resistance, meet support.
A shallower 5-1/2 point bounce was quickly retraced. And now that bounce is trying to resume. Wait, no, now it”s retesting 2073.50 support.
Meanwhile, the clock keeps ticking. And holding the 2081.25 bias-up signal”s test through 10:15 has put into play a test of the 2066.00 2071.50 bias-down signal. Recovering 2081.25 through 10:30 would invalidate whatever was signaled at 10:15 — invalidating the bias signals from containing the morning”s price action.
Faster, indeed! Not gapping up
Faster, indeed! Not gapping up would have defaulted to trending down, if not for another dip and recovery overnight. Now that recovery has dipped again. It would be optimal for this pre-open dip to hold 2071.25, which was just attacked to within 1 tick. Back above 2075 through the open can firm back to the range”s upper-end this morning, enabling an afternoon breakout. Despite the reprieve, trending down would still be credible if the bias-down signal is triggered. Here”s more details with pretty pictures in the pre-market Tour recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/zvssstx
The First Trade… Dip, recover, repeat, faster!
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Enter the Chartroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
For the second consecutive session Wednesday, the prior day”s late drop was retraced entirely by an opening surge. Also, retracing that immediate recovery was also recovered, again. And once again, despite absorbing two sell-offs, prior highs were not probed — the range persists. No unfinished business was left outstanding, and neither buyers nor sellers gained traction for their efforts.
Overnight action”s new info…
Post-close earnings misses from AA and BBBY didn”t prevent Initially firming a couple of points to 2078.00. But sliding from there eventually reached 2073.00. After firming into Europe”s opens, the decline resumed with a steeper slide to 2067.25. The last several hours have retraced it all back up to 2077.50.
If, then…
Absorbing dips is potentially constructive. Potentially. Waiting too long before exploiting that potential can become vulnerable to yet another dip gaining traction. Delaying the latest dip this time until overnight is being met by accelerating its recovery to precede the open. Potential for resuming the rally remains alive, and the only proof more constructive than last night”s round trip would be to actually resume the uptrend. The vulnerability to another dip gaining traction remains alive, too, especially if there”s any further delay to resuming the rally after recovering last night”s dip.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2077.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2071.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2082.50 would be likely to trigger the 2081.25 bias-up signal.
Livestox! Look for an announcement
Livestox! Look for an announcement after the open for today”s live review of my stock picks and your chart analysis requests. Also, we”re using new software that is iPhone, iPad and tablet friendly…
Morning bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2088.50 | 2081.25 |
| …would target | 2095.25 | 2088.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2078.00 | 2071.25 |
| …would target | 2067.00 | 2066.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.