Posts by Rod David
Greeting the afternoon”s FOMC Minutes
Greeting the afternoon”s FOMC Minutes from within the 2071.25-2077.50 range was able to retract the initial knee-jerk reaction, but not reverse it. Actually, that probes recovery did extend through the range”s upper-end, but couldn”t remain above the range.
It”s almost like equilibrium — which is alternating failed trending attempts, with the third trending attempt a smashing success… much like an Olympic shot-putter. Since neither buyers nor sellers gained traction for their effort through Wednesday close, trending Thursday morning should begin by surging/gapping open.
Resolving up still gets a benefit of the doubt. Resolving down would be credible, too (watch today”s post-market Wrap for a detailed discussion about that), but attempts to break lower haven”t gained traction. Putting it all together makes Thursday”s open likely to gap up and extend higher. Not gapping up would become likelier to trend down.
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/cxwwwsz
REMINDER: THURSDAY @ 6:00PM ET
TRAINING SESSION WORKSHOP
[afternoon reminder will include the link]
Daily Spot… Crude Oil crushed.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up slightly Wednesday was unable to recover above . keeping alive Tuesday”s reversal which extended down to 1.0770.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday”s dip into the 1208.50-1213.00 pullback limit wasn”t recovered Wednesday, and instead extended down to attack 1200.50 and 1197.00. Back above 1208.50-1213.00 would now signal the rally had resumed, but there is otherwise no active signal.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday”s test of its 16.80-16.90 pullback target extended to its previous pullback limit of 16.45. Closing down there without having first triggered a buy signal does make it easier again to launch a rally leg, but closing above 16.90.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
A slightly higher high at Wednesday”s open up to 165- was retraced sharply back down to 163-21, almost low enough and for almost long enough to extend down by proxy. But a recovery in reaction to the FOMC Minutes retested 164-28. That”s still resistance, and holding ti through the close does keep alive potential for launching the next downleg.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Higher inventories pushed price down Wednesday under 50.50 from Tuesday piercing of 54.00 pushed. Recovering back above 51.45 without delay Thursday is the minimum to reistate the bullish scenario.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Dipping again Wednesday at least avoided gaining downside traction. But not closing above 2.72 prevents greeting Thursday”s EIA report from a position of strength. Support hasn”t broken, so a knee-jerk reaction down would be.likely to recover.
Pre-close view… Fed feelers.
Reaction to the Minutes has probed lower and higher.
This morning”s rogue plunge exploited the open”s rally. That room was needed for absorbing a negative knee-jerk reaction to the afternoon”s FOMC Minutes.
Exiting the bias environment above 2075.00 would have reinstated that position of strength, but it was only touched at 11:30. Entering the noon hour above 2077.50 would have worked, but it was also only touched by then.
So, FOMC Minutes wasn”t greeted from strength. Or, from weakness. It was greeted within a 2070.50-2075.00 range. The first break was lower to test 2066.00 support. Its reaction attacked the high up to 2079.50. And then dipped back into the range at 2071.00.
A short-squeeze could have formed from entering the final hour above the morning”s high. A bigger sell-off would have been triggered back under 2070.50. Beyond either end of the range through 3:10-3:20 could still be credible for extending aggressively in that direction — but only as credibly as the past two sessions” late drops.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Apr 9 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Jobless Claims might be influential this close to last week”s stunning Employment Situation report reaction. But the 30-year auction should influence price action, too — initially by inhibiting volatility, and then usually by rallying in relief from a successful placement. Usually.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2084.50 | 2077.50 |
| …would target | 2090.00 | 2083.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2078.50 | 2071.50 |
| …would target | 2073.00 | 2066.00 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.