Posts by Rod David
Post-open review… Digesting more sellers.
Yet another dip, and yet another recovery. The open”s surge from 2073.25 immediately proved that yesterday”s last-hour sellers were weak-handed, by surging through yesterday”s 2080.00 high to 2081.50.
Doubters will be doubters, and a quick slide developed to 2072.25. That took 20 minutes. Another 25 minutes later, and 2081.50 was recovered. Then it was exceeded up to the 2082.50 bias-up target.
The bias-up target is calculated from accumulation patterns, and identifies where that buying pressure would be satisfied. Meeting the 2082.50 target must either extend higher without delay or else react down. This instance is reacting down.
A pullback has room down to 2077.50 (optimal) or to 2075.00 (stretching it) before suspecting that yet another dip is trying to do some damage. Meanwhile, just having returned to last week”s highs makes the two-week old highs likely to be retested, too. And there”s no reason for that other than to probe a new high.
The last pre-open dip from
The last pre-open dip from 2079.25 to 2073.00.actually duplicated yesterday”s last pre-close dip. So long as it recovered quickly above 2075.00 and then extended above 2078.25, bias-up would be likely to trigger. A massive domino effect would follow that, with potential to new highs. More on that in the pre-market Tour recording (sorry for the delay, it just arrived):
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/wzccpby
The First Trade… Ready to resume the rally?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Enter the Chartroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Monday”s pre-open firming to 2048.00 extended steeply and substantially. Friday”s Globex plunge from 2063.00 was recovered entirely by the 10:15 bias timing window. Last Tuesday afternoon”s drop from 2074.00 was recovered during the bias environment. Higher highs at 2080.00 stopped 2 points short of touching last Monday”s last relative high. The final hour dipped back down to 2072.25.
Overnight action”s new info…
The final hour”s dip extended slightly lower to test 2070.50 as support. It had been Monday morning”s attraction above, and its support held. Firming into Europe”s opens eventually surged to 2077.50, which had been Monday afternoon”s bias-up signal. Its resistance held, and reacted down to 2071.00. That has now recovered to a fresh high at 2079.25.
If, then…
Yesterday”s late dip wasn”t likely to gain traction for its effort. That didn”t prevent there being potential down to 2066.00 before even beginning to prevent resuming yesterday”s rally. But now that the recovery from 2070.50 has behaved aggressively — surging to 2077.50, twice — post-open action shouldn”t hesitate much before extending the rally. Otherwise, dipping again post-open would put 2066.00 on the radar, if not deeper to 2061.00.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2073.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2077.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2078.25 would start to make the bias-up likelier to trigger.
Morning bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2084.75 | 2077.50 |
| …would target | 2089.75 | 2082.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2073.25 | 2066.00 |
| …would target | 2068.25 | 2061.00 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
A 5-6 point final hour
A 5-6 point final hour dip isn”t very relevant when post-open rally gained 31 points. That streak made the final hour unlikely to reverse the trend back down. In fact, the morning bias environment”s 2073 high wasn”t touched until the final minute. That final minute also fulfilled the 2073.25 target of the late 2077.25 sell signal. So, sellers expended all available energy during a window that wasn”t going to gain them control. Firming immediately would be credible for extending higher overnight. There is otherwise room down to 2066 without sellers gaining control, which would all but require gapping down sharply, e.g. under 2061-2062… More in the post-market Wrap recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkkxck