Posts by Rod David
Pre-close view… 9 of 10 actuarials say, up more.
Pullback limit violated, finally, but not reversed down.
What”s the opposite of up? It”s “not up.”
The knee-jerk answer is “down.” That would be the opposite direction of up. Not trending up doesn”t necessarily default to trending down.
And finally violating the 10th pullback limit test, i.e. trading deeper than its first 3 minutes, doesn”t equate to a sell signal. It only means the upward momentum has lapsed.
Downward momentum can still catch, and it”s trying — probing a fresh afternoon low down to 2075.75.
But back above 2078.50 would be likely to extend steeply and substantially into the close. Having rallied through each prior timing window, the final timing window becomes likelier to also probe a fresh high, or at least less likely to trend back down.
Daily Spot,,, Gold target met, Crude Oil target attacked.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday didn”t reject Friday”s spike up in reaction to the Employment Situation report. It eventually probed higher to test 1.0145. The probe above 1.0900 wasn”t rejected, so resuming the decline without first extending the rally substantially would all but require closing back under 1.0855 Tuesday.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night”s rally already fulfilled the 1194.00 buy signal”s minimum objective by retesting last week”s overnight 1220.40 spike high. Holding 1213.00 support would maintain the rally”s momentum. Closing back under 1208.50 would signal momentum reversing down.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Testing 17.20 Sunday night stopped short of touching last week”s overnight high before dipping back down for a gap up Monday to 17.05. A fresh high testing 17.30 was also retraced down to 17.05. The pullback can test 16.80-16.90 and still be likely to resume the rally.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Overnight highs up to 165-26 gapped up Monday and almost immediately began trending back down to fresh lows that tested 163-16. Extending under 163-08 would next target 162-12 and then lower.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh recovery highs Sunday night attacked 51.00. Higher highs intraday Monday attacked 52.25, just short of the minimum objective of retesting the recent overnight highs up to 52.50.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday”s surge through the 2.64 buy signal was retraced entirely to that inflection point before Monday”s open. The session ranged sideways without extending the gap down or recovering it. Now a gap above is outstanding that can attract price higher for a more serious rally effort.
Don’t. Look. Down.
Extended rally hasn”t yet corrected.
And by corrected, I mean that no pullback limit has been probed deeper than its first 3 minutes. With the exception of an errant tick, every dip has resolved in higher highs before upside momentum could lapse.
Bias-up did trigger, late, after still overlapping the 2077.50 bias-up signal within 3 minutes of 1:20. Now 2077.50 is being tested as support. It seems like a critical test.
The 2049.50 buy signal”s 10th pullback limit is being tested now, having probed under 2078.50 for 3 minutes. It seems like a critical test, too.
Do you want to step in front of that? Just don”t tolerate much recovery if short.
Having tested and recovered from 9 previous pullback limits, is the 10th test likelier to finally reverse down, or is it even likelier than ever to recover again? The latter, of course — limit tests are not a coin flip that should average out over time.
Having said that, the likelier scenario is simply to avoid trending back down, if not also to extend higher through the final hour.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Apr 7 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
What will Tuesday”s pre-open Fed speaker say to the timing or likelihood of a rate hike? How will the JOLTS openings impact the original perception of Friday”s Employment Situation report and Monday”s processing of that?
Gallup US ECI
8:30 AM ET
Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks — dove
8:50 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2084.75 | 2077.50 |
| …would target | 2089.75 | 2082.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2073.25 | 2066.00 |
| …would target | 2068.25 | 2061.00 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.